***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 9.8 13.5 97.7 60.0 49.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.8 13.8 103.8 62.6 50.7 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.8 13.6 97.1 59.6 49.1 4.1 7.8 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.0 11.9 13.5 93.7 58.6 49.4 6.1 9.6 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.2 10.7 13.4 93.5 58.2 49.8 6.2 9.1 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.6 13.5 97.9 60.9 52.1 3.6 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.5 11.0 14.0 105.7 63.5 51.1 4.2 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.0 14.8 92.3 57.1 49.4 10.4 14.8 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.5 14.0 94.3 58.3 49.5 4.5 7.6 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.4 12.7 14.6 92.0 56.6 48.9 6.9 10.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.9 12.6 91.8 57.3 49.7 5.0 8.2 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.4 11.1 12.9 92.6 57.6 49.6 6.3 9.5 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.2 9.8 13.1 93.9 58.1 50.4 5.3 8.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.7 17.2 15.7 97.4 58.7 47.8 7.9 13.6 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.7 13.3 92.3 59.2 48.3 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.0 9.8 12.6 94.7 58.8 50.4 4.8 7.8 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.8 13.9 107.3 64.1 51.2 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.3 16.2 91.6 55.8 47.6 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.7 13.7 101.8 61.6 49.9 4.3 8.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.8 20.0 91.5 56.5 47.8 6.0 10.6 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.1 13.7 95.9 59.3 49.7 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.5 13.9 102.1 61.7 50.5 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.7 13.8 99.5 60.2 48.7 5.0 8.7 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.5 14.2 15.0 94.2 57.5 48.1 7.2 11.8 17.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.5 14.5 96.7 59.6 50.3 3.9 6.5 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.8 9.5 13.7 93.2 58.1 49.3 4.8 7.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.9 14.6 99.2 60.7 50.6 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.2 13.1 93.9 59.3 49.1 3.9 7.0 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.7 19.2 17.8 92.7 56.5 47.4 10.0 16.4 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.6 10.6 13.7 102.4 62.0 50.5 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------