***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 35.6 48.7 93.7 51.6 48.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 36.7 35.1 47.5 95.1 53.6 50.5 25.3 33.3 42.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 47.2 42.8 47.8 92.1 50.3 48.2 31.8 42.8 55.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 51.5 50.0 53.4 96.7 54.6 51.9 34.3 46.6 60.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 48.2 44.1 49.8 92.1 50.2 48.4 33.8 44.1 55.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 39.5 40.6 54.1 102.7 58.3 54.6 26.6 35.6 45.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 38.3 37.4 48.9 98.3 55.8 52.4 25.7 34.3 43.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 63.7 59.2 54.8 91.8 49.7 48.0 47.7 59.2 71.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 39.7 33.8 48.7 88.8 46.8 45.7 26.1 35.6 46.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 50.6 43.6 51.5 88.4 46.3 45.3 35.3 46.2 57.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 47.0 41.8 47.1 90.8 49.2 47.6 31.8 42.5 54.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 49.8 45.5 49.2 93.2 51.0 49.0 33.1 44.8 57.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 48.7 47.6 52.3 98.1 54.6 51.9 34.6 44.6 55.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 62.0 53.4 53.2 88.5 46.0 44.4 44.6 56.4 69.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 53.8 55.9 56.9 102.1 59.0 55.5 29.1 45.5 65.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 44.1 42.0 49.2 95.9 53.3 50.8 29.2 39.7 51.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 39.7 39.0 47.9 97.8 55.7 52.1 27.0 35.8 45.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 48.4 42.3 56.9 88.3 45.7 44.7 35.5 44.7 54.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 41.7 38.6 46.9 92.5 51.4 48.8 28.4 37.7 48.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 55.7 54.1 79.3 97.1 54.1 51.3 38.7 50.9 64.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 43.8 38.6 48.1 90.6 48.4 46.7 29.3 39.4 51.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 42.5 39.7 47.9 93.7 52.3 49.4 29.3 38.5 48.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 41.0 36.6 47.3 90.2 48.7 46.6 28.7 37.3 46.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 54.9 48.6 51.7 88.3 45.8 44.7 41.4 51.1 61.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 40.2 38.6 54.2 95.6 53.3 50.4 28.9 37.0 45.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 43.8 45.8 57.9 104.8 60.2 56.4 29.9 39.4 49.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 42.6 40.3 52.8 95.7 53.3 50.3 28.2 38.1 49.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 43.4 42.7 52.8 98.1 55.8 52.8 26.4 38.0 52.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 75.1 68.1 64.3 91.2 48.6 46.8 55.1 69.4 84.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 37.8 36.1 47.8 95.0 53.3 50.5 25.2 34.0 44.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------