***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 10.8 12.2 12.0 3.5 85.3 82.7 6.1 7.9 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 10.3 11.4 12.0 3.4 84.1 81.6 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 11.7 13.1 12.8 3.7 84.6 82.0 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 5.3 7.0 8.7 3.6 87.1 83.6 0.8 2.5 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 11.4 12.5 10.7 3.2 81.8 79.6 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 10.6 11.8 9.8 3.3 83.1 80.9 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 10.1 11.1 11.6 3.2 82.5 80.1 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 4.3 5.1 9.9 3.1 80.0 78.0 0.4 2.0 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 12.1 13.3 11.7 3.3 82.9 80.7 7.4 9.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 11.2 12.1 11.0 3.4 81.2 79.0 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 11.8 12.8 11.4 3.2 80.7 78.6 6.9 8.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 11.4 12.3 10.3 3.0 80.6 78.5 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 11.9 12.6 11.5 3.1 79.8 78.0 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 11.7 12.9 12.6 3.7 81.9 79.7 7.1 9.0 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 9.4 11.3 10.1 3.6 91.1 87.5 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 12.2 13.0 10.7 3.0 79.8 77.9 7.4 9.3 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 9.5 10.5 11.3 3.2 82.5 80.1 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 8.6 9.2 10.6 3.3 78.8 77.0 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 10.7 11.9 12.3 3.5 84.2 81.8 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 8.0 8.5 9.1 3.0 77.5 75.8 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 11.6 12.9 12.3 3.3 82.8 80.4 7.0 8.8 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 10.2 11.2 11.7 3.3 82.9 80.7 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 10.7 11.8 12.6 3.6 83.9 81.6 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 11.9 12.9 12.4 3.6 81.8 79.6 7.4 9.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 10.4 11.6 11.0 3.3 83.7 81.0 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 10.8 11.5 9.4 2.8 80.6 78.7 6.7 8.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 11.6 12.8 11.5 3.3 83.1 80.8 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 9.9 11.5 9.5 3.5 87.3 83.8 5.7 7.3 8.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 8.1 8.8 10.2 3.3 78.4 76.7 3.7 5.5 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 10.5 11.7 12.2 3.5 84.9 82.3 6.0 7.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------