***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.9 29.0 33.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -2.0 -1.8 -1.1 -1.5 32.4 36.3 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 -0.3 -0.3 -1.2 -1.8 29.5 33.3 0.0 1.3 2.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -5.8 -5.9 -4.1 -2.2 26.6 30.9 -5.2 -3.6 -2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 -3.3 -3.3 -3.8 -2.3 25.5 29.7 -2.5 -1.0 0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 -3.6 -3.9 -4.9 -2.5 23.9 29.9 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -2.0 -1.8 -1.0 -1.6 32.2 36.2 -1.7 -0.4 0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 -6.8 -7.1 -4.9 -2.8 22.4 27.6 -6.1 -4.7 -3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 -2.2 -2.0 -2.8 -2.2 26.7 30.2 -1.5 -0.1 1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 -2.9 -3.0 -4.3 -2.7 23.2 27.7 -2.1 -0.7 0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 -2.9 -3.2 -3.9 -2.5 24.5 29.5 -2.3 -0.8 0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 -3.6 -3.9 -4.2 -2.6 23.1 28.6 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 -3.5 -3.9 -4.5 -2.7 22.4 28.3 -2.6 -0.8 0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 -1.5 -1.6 -3.3 -2.4 24.0 29.4 -0.9 0.3 1.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 -2.3 -2.2 -3.0 -1.7 31.2 34.7 -2.0 -0.7 0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 -2.2 -2.5 -4.3 -2.5 24.1 29.5 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 -2.2 -1.7 -1.0 -1.3 34.9 38.2 -1.9 -0.6 0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 -4.5 -4.8 -5.2 -3.1 20.8 26.1 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 -1.7 -1.6 -1.2 -1.6 31.5 35.5 -1.5 -0.2 1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 -8.2 -8.5 -6.3 -3.0 21.8 27.5 -7.0 -5.0 -3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 -2.3 -2.3 -1.8 -2.0 28.3 31.8 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -2.1 -1.7 -1.1 -1.3 34.4 37.8 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 -1.7 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 29.5 33.9 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 -2.1 -2.2 -3.4 -2.5 23.9 28.7 -1.5 -0.3 0.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 -2.2 -2.3 -3.1 -2.2 26.3 31.2 -1.7 -0.3 1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 -2.7 -3.1 -4.1 -2.6 22.3 28.0 -2.1 -0.7 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 -2.4 -2.4 -2.0 -2.1 27.3 32.2 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -3.4 -3.5 -3.6 -2.0 28.6 32.6 -3.1 -1.7 -0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 -5.1 -5.6 -5.8 -3.2 19.9 26.2 -4.3 -2.8 -1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 -1.7 -1.6 -1.0 -1.7 31.2 35.2 -1.5 -0.1 1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------