***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.8 7.2 9.8 67.3 47.9 37.6 3.9 7.8 13.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.8 5.7 8.9 68.2 48.5 38.3 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.8 7.8 9.9 69.1 48.1 37.9 4.2 8.4 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.9 11.5 13.0 77.1 53.5 42.8 5.7 10.2 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.9 8.5 11.2 71.2 49.1 40.6 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.4 5.7 10.1 66.8 47.3 38.2 3.1 6.5 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.0 5.9 8.6 66.8 48.0 38.1 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.8 9.9 10.7 62.1 43.6 37.2 6.7 12.2 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.6 6.9 11.0 71.9 49.8 41.0 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.7 7.9 10.8 66.2 45.7 38.6 4.7 9.2 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.9 10.4 65.8 45.1 38.1 3.9 8.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.6 8.2 10.1 62.8 44.1 37.5 4.9 10.4 18.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.8 7.2 10.4 63.0 43.5 36.5 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 5.0 8.7 11.2 64.7 45.6 37.0 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 11.6 13.1 77.3 54.5 42.0 3.6 9.2 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.3 6.9 10.6 67.6 46.6 38.8 3.7 7.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 3.0 6.4 8.8 68.0 49.3 37.8 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.3 8.9 11.5 68.5 46.8 39.2 5.4 9.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.5 6.7 9.2 68.9 48.4 38.4 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.0 7.1 13.4 61.0 41.7 35.4 5.0 9.8 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.0 8.1 10.9 73.1 50.5 40.1 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.7 6.3 9.6 71.1 49.7 38.6 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.3 6.2 9.7 68.2 47.9 38.5 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.4 8.4 11.2 69.6 47.6 38.7 4.8 9.2 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.8 6.8 11.9 71.6 49.5 39.3 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.4 5.8 11.3 65.5 45.2 37.4 3.2 7.0 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.1 7.4 10.4 67.9 47.9 37.7 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.9 12.2 74.9 52.5 41.2 3.5 8.1 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.6 10.7 12.1 66.0 45.1 37.6 6.8 12.7 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.5 6.2 9.0 66.9 47.5 37.8 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------