***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.7 7.3 9.6 67.0 48.5 37.7 3.9 7.8 13.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 2.7 6.6 10.4 72.6 52.7 38.7 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.9 8.5 10.4 72.8 50.5 39.6 4.2 8.4 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.7 9.1 10.2 63.5 46.2 36.2 5.7 10.2 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.9 8.5 10.9 72.5 49.2 39.2 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.3 4.6 9.2 62.0 42.2 35.0 3.1 6.5 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.0 6.9 10.3 73.0 52.8 38.7 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.3 11.3 11.3 72.3 48.0 39.0 6.7 12.2 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.7 7.4 11.4 77.1 51.3 40.8 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.7 9.2 11.6 75.4 49.9 40.3 4.7 9.2 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.3 8.5 9.8 72.7 49.8 39.7 3.9 8.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 5.0 9.8 9.9 72.9 48.5 39.2 4.9 10.4 18.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.8 8.1 9.8 69.9 46.3 38.3 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.3 11.4 13.3 81.0 54.4 42.6 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 4.0 5.3 9.8 51.2 39.5 31.4 3.6 9.2 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.9 6.9 9.3 68.2 46.7 38.0 3.7 7.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 3.0 7.6 10.7 75.6 54.4 39.2 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 10.2 13.3 78.2 51.3 41.3 5.4 9.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 3.3 7.6 10.4 72.7 52.3 38.8 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.9 9.3 15.7 72.1 48.6 38.6 5.0 9.8 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.1 8.1 10.8 74.8 50.7 40.0 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.8 7.6 11.0 76.1 54.4 40.2 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.3 7.3 10.9 75.2 53.0 40.3 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.0 10.0 12.3 79.2 52.6 41.9 4.8 9.2 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.7 6.0 11.0 65.2 45.4 36.5 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.3 5.8 9.5 67.5 45.5 36.6 3.2 7.0 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 4.0 7.2 10.5 66.1 47.1 37.2 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.8 6.0 9.4 57.6 43.4 34.4 3.5 8.1 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.6 13.2 14.6 77.7 51.3 40.8 6.8 12.7 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 3.2 7.3 10.2 71.4 52.1 38.9 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------