***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.5 3.4 3.8 -1.1 39.0 45.3 2.7 4.4 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.8 2.6 3.6 -1.3 37.5 44.7 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.1 4.2 4.2 -1.0 39.5 45.8 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -2.1 -0.7 1.5 -0.8 41.4 45.9 -1.7 0.3 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.3 2.5 -0.8 41.9 46.6 3.4 5.0 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.4 2.5 -0.4 46.3 48.8 3.1 4.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.5 2.3 3.5 -1.3 37.0 44.2 1.8 3.5 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.6 -1.2 2.5 -0.6 43.7 47.9 -2.3 -0.6 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.9 3.4 -0.8 42.5 47.1 3.8 5.7 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.9 4.3 3.0 -0.7 43.5 47.5 3.3 4.9 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.5 2.6 -0.8 42.2 46.8 3.5 5.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.2 4.7 2.5 -0.7 42.4 47.0 3.6 5.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.5 2.2 -0.7 43.0 47.0 3.4 5.2 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.3 3.7 -1.0 40.8 46.1 3.4 5.4 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.4 2.3 -0.9 40.9 45.8 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.7 4.9 2.2 -0.8 42.1 46.4 4.0 5.7 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.4 2.2 3.5 -1.3 37.3 44.1 1.7 3.3 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 1.1 2.5 3.0 -0.6 43.7 47.7 1.5 3.0 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.2 3.1 3.9 -1.2 38.3 45.4 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 0.1 2.0 1.7 -0.4 45.9 49.1 0.7 2.4 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.6 3.9 -0.8 41.7 46.5 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.9 2.8 3.7 -1.1 38.3 44.8 2.2 3.9 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.2 3.3 4.2 -1.1 39.4 46.0 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.3 4.7 3.7 -0.8 41.8 46.7 3.7 5.5 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.6 2.6 -0.9 41.1 45.8 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.5 2.2 -0.4 45.4 48.8 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.2 3.3 -1.0 39.8 45.4 3.4 5.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.0 1.9 -0.8 41.5 46.0 3.0 5.0 6.8 28 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -0.4 1.4 2.6 -0.5 44.6 48.4 0.2 1.9 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.0 2.7 3.6 -1.2 37.5 44.8 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------