***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.5 9.1 0.7 55.8 55.6 6.7 8.8 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.3 9.4 0.9 58.1 57.4 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.6 9.9 1.0 58.2 57.7 7.4 9.6 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 4.4 5.0 6.5 1.2 59.7 58.8 1.3 3.7 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 10.2 9.9 7.5 0.3 52.3 52.9 7.4 9.6 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.5 7.8 5.3 -0.9 42.6 44.7 6.6 8.7 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.8 9.0 0.6 55.6 55.2 6.3 8.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 3.0 2.4 6.3 -0.2 48.2 49.4 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.0 8.8 0.7 55.6 55.7 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 9.8 9.4 7.5 0.1 51.4 52.1 7.1 9.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 10.4 10.0 8.0 0.3 52.0 52.6 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 10.2 9.6 6.8 -0.1 49.4 50.5 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 10.3 9.1 7.1 -0.7 44.3 46.1 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 10.9 11.2 9.7 1.0 57.6 57.3 7.6 10.1 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 9.6 9.2 8.6 1.6 64.5 62.3 5.4 7.5 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 10.9 10.0 7.0 -0.3 47.7 48.9 8.1 10.3 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.5 8.8 0.8 56.7 56.0 5.8 7.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 8.0 7.5 6.9 -0.1 49.1 50.0 5.8 7.6 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.8 9.7 1.1 59.5 58.7 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 6.9 5.4 4.7 -1.1 41.7 43.6 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.5 9.4 0.7 55.6 55.7 7.7 9.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.4 9.3 1.0 58.3 57.5 6.1 8.4 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.9 10.0 1.4 60.9 60.0 6.3 8.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 10.9 10.9 9.2 0.7 55.2 55.2 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.4 9.2 8.0 0.4 53.3 53.5 6.9 8.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 9.6 8.0 5.3 -1.1 40.7 43.2 7.1 9.0 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 10.4 10.0 8.5 0.3 52.4 52.7 7.6 9.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.6 7.5 1.2 60.3 59.1 5.9 8.2 10.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 6.8 5.8 6.1 -0.5 46.5 47.8 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.2 9.4 0.9 57.6 57.1 6.4 8.4 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------