***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 9.7 8.5 1.6 66.3 63.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.8 8.5 8.0 1.3 63.0 60.7 5.6 7.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.1 10.0 8.6 1.5 64.9 62.1 6.8 8.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 2.8 3.6 6.5 1.4 63.9 61.5 0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 10.2 10.0 7.4 1.6 65.5 62.6 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 9.7 9.8 7.0 2.0 69.3 66.2 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.5 7.9 1.3 63.5 61.1 5.5 7.2 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 3.6 3.5 7.0 1.7 67.2 64.3 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 10.8 10.6 8.1 1.6 65.6 62.6 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 10.0 9.9 7.6 1.7 66.5 63.4 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 10.5 10.4 7.6 1.8 67.5 64.4 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 10.4 10.4 7.6 1.9 68.5 65.6 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 10.8 11.0 7.5 2.2 70.8 67.7 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.0 8.1 1.4 62.7 60.1 7.0 8.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 7.0 7.5 6.4 1.2 62.6 60.7 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 11.1 11.1 7.4 1.9 68.3 65.3 7.3 9.1 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.5 7.5 1.0 60.6 58.7 4.9 6.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 7.8 7.7 7.4 1.7 66.4 63.1 4.7 6.2 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.2 8.9 8.2 1.3 62.9 60.6 6.0 7.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 6.9 7.0 5.8 1.7 67.9 64.8 3.2 5.1 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 10.4 10.2 8.4 1.6 65.4 62.5 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.1 7.7 0.9 59.6 57.8 5.6 7.2 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.3 8.9 8.5 1.3 62.9 60.5 6.1 7.7 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 11.0 10.7 8.2 1.6 64.8 61.8 7.5 9.2 10.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 7.9 8.9 7.2 1.5 65.9 63.1 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 10.2 10.4 7.3 2.2 72.2 69.3 6.8 8.3 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 10.2 10.2 7.9 1.6 66.5 63.6 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.4 8.2 6.7 1.3 63.4 61.2 5.4 6.9 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 7.0 7.0 6.8 1.7 67.4 64.0 3.6 5.3 6.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.0 8.8 8.2 1.4 64.2 61.7 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------