***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.9 6.1 9.0 71.3 49.1 38.4 3.2 6.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.8 5.7 8.1 70.5 50.1 37.8 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.3 6.6 8.5 67.5 47.8 37.6 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.2 11.2 12.2 79.2 54.1 41.7 5.9 10.0 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.0 6.9 9.7 65.8 47.1 37.7 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.5 7.3 10.6 74.0 51.6 39.5 3.8 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.9 6.0 8.0 71.6 50.6 38.0 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.5 9.8 9.9 62.5 44.8 36.3 7.1 11.0 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.0 5.0 8.9 61.4 45.1 35.9 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.8 7.7 9.6 62.9 45.3 36.5 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.6 6.3 9.5 63.7 45.7 36.3 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 4.6 7.8 9.4 62.6 44.5 35.3 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 4.6 8.3 10.4 68.2 47.9 36.7 5.1 8.8 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.4 7.8 10.3 64.3 45.9 37.2 4.6 9.1 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.7 13.5 12.6 81.9 57.2 41.3 5.2 10.5 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.1 7.3 10.2 68.8 48.6 38.0 4.1 7.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.2 6.4 8.5 73.5 51.9 40.1 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 5.6 9.3 10.2 65.5 47.0 38.4 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.8 5.8 8.2 69.3 48.9 37.5 2.9 6.1 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.5 10.1 12.8 66.7 46.9 39.0 6.3 11.1 17.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.5 6.1 9.0 64.9 46.3 36.6 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.0 9.3 74.9 51.9 40.0 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.8 5.4 8.8 68.8 47.7 37.6 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 5.1 8.5 9.5 64.1 46.0 37.2 5.5 9.6 15.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.0 6.1 10.5 72.2 49.6 39.6 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.6 6.7 11.9 74.8 51.7 38.8 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.3 6.6 9.4 70.8 48.7 38.1 3.5 7.0 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.8 11.4 12.1 80.5 55.5 42.0 5.7 9.7 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.9 13.5 11.0 66.7 47.2 38.7 8.1 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.7 5.7 8.1 69.6 49.1 37.3 3.0 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------