***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 9.9 14.5 112.5 66.6 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.0 8.3 13.5 101.7 62.9 50.7 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.8 12.8 14.7 115.0 67.4 54.7 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.0 12.1 15.1 111.3 66.1 54.0 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.4 13.6 15.0 117.1 68.2 56.4 4.5 8.0 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.9 9.8 14.7 108.3 65.2 54.5 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.1 8.1 13.4 100.4 62.4 49.8 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.3 17.5 16.3 117.7 68.5 56.4 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.9 12.4 15.6 122.1 70.0 57.8 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.5 14.8 16.4 121.6 69.8 57.9 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.1 13.8 14.1 116.0 67.9 56.1 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.3 14.8 14.1 113.5 67.2 55.5 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.8 12.6 14.7 111.1 66.2 55.3 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.1 16.1 17.1 119.2 69.0 57.3 5.4 9.4 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.4 12.1 14.9 105.6 64.3 50.6 2.6 6.6 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.5 11.8 13.8 111.3 66.2 54.9 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.2 9.0 12.6 98.0 61.6 49.2 3.5 6.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 13.5 18.5 122.9 70.3 58.5 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.9 9.9 13.9 106.2 64.5 52.2 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.4 22.6 119.0 68.8 56.0 4.6 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.1 13.2 15.2 121.7 69.9 57.0 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.5 9.8 12.9 98.8 61.3 49.7 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.9 10.5 14.8 112.9 66.8 54.4 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 14.8 16.9 121.9 69.9 58.2 4.7 8.4 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.4 15.7 111.6 66.0 53.5 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.9 14.9 106.4 64.5 53.0 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.8 15.2 108.9 65.1 52.0 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.0 10.2 14.5 109.5 65.5 52.7 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.9 18.4 20.2 121.0 69.5 57.4 6.1 10.6 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.0 13.9 104.5 63.9 51.4 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------