***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 15.3 15.7 15.8 123.1 71.2 66.8 5.4 9.0 13.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 14.7 15.6 13.7 120.7 70.5 66.6 3.7 7.6 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 16.2 16.5 14.4 114.8 69.0 65.2 4.9 9.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 12.9 19.6 17.0 114.7 68.3 64.0 5.6 10.9 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 47 53 100 16.4 17.4 16.9 117.2 69.6 64.7 4.8 9.2 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 14.6 22.2 16.1 113.5 68.8 64.1 6.4 12.2 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 14.5 15.7 14.4 129.1 72.7 69.2 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 19.9 20.6 12.0 82.3 57.5 52.0 8.4 16.1 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 10.3 14.6 14.4 101.4 65.3 60.2 4.1 8.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 12.1 14.5 13.4 91.6 61.5 55.9 4.7 9.7 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 13.3 18.2 13.9 101.6 65.2 59.4 5.4 10.8 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 14.6 16.0 11.6 85.2 58.8 53.2 5.2 11.5 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 15.0 21.3 15.3 105.6 66.4 61.1 6.2 12.3 21.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 16.9 21.9 14.3 102.3 64.6 59.3 7.7 14.1 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 22.8 22.7 17.8 117.4 69.1 65.2 4.6 10.7 20.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 20.2 20.8 16.1 116.7 69.4 64.6 5.7 11.1 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 14.8 16.1 13.8 123.3 71.3 67.7 4.9 8.8 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 14.6 15.3 12.9 84.5 58.0 53.0 5.8 11.7 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 12.2 17.8 13.5 114.7 68.8 64.6 5.6 10.1 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 16.6 14.6 13.7 75.6 53.8 49.4 6.0 12.7 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 10.5 15.6 15.3 112.2 68.4 63.9 4.4 8.6 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 11.7 16.7 13.5 113.2 68.4 63.9 5.7 10.0 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 11.1 15.4 13.4 107.3 66.7 62.1 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 13.4 16.9 13.5 96.5 62.7 58.1 5.5 11.0 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 14.5 15.1 18.5 126.5 72.1 68.5 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 14.3 18.0 14.3 94.0 62.1 57.3 5.7 11.8 20.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 14.0 14.9 17.1 127.2 72.2 68.1 4.0 7.5 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 11.1 17.1 16.4 114.6 68.3 63.7 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 22.0 20.6 12.4 77.4 54.5 49.7 9.7 17.8 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 14.8 15.7 14.1 121.9 70.9 67.0 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------