***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.7 9.4 1.1 62.9 59.5 6.4 8.3 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.6 9.4 1.2 64.1 60.7 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.8 9.6 1.2 63.5 60.1 7.3 9.3 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 5.3 4.9 7.4 1.3 65.2 61.6 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.7 7.9 1.1 63.2 60.0 7.2 9.2 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.2 9.4 7.1 0.9 60.4 58.1 6.5 8.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.5 9.2 9.2 1.2 63.2 59.8 6.1 7.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.1 3.5 7.2 1.0 62.1 59.4 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.5 8.7 1.1 63.0 59.8 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.3 7.9 1.1 62.3 59.3 7.0 8.9 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.8 7.7 1.0 61.6 58.8 7.2 9.3 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.5 7.5 0.9 60.5 58.4 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.4 7.1 0.7 58.6 57.1 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.2 9.0 1.1 61.9 58.9 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 9.2 9.1 7.8 1.4 67.9 63.6 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.1 7.4 0.9 60.5 58.1 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.9 9.0 1.1 63.1 59.9 5.7 7.5 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.7 8.1 7.8 1.1 61.9 58.8 5.3 7.0 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.2 10.1 9.6 1.3 64.3 60.8 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.4 6.0 1.1 62.4 59.5 4.1 6.0 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.9 9.2 1.1 63.2 59.9 7.4 9.4 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.8 9.5 9.2 1.1 62.5 59.7 6.2 8.1 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.8 9.8 1.3 63.9 60.4 6.4 8.3 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.3 8.9 1.1 62.4 59.1 7.8 9.8 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.8 8.0 1.2 64.0 60.6 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.6 6.9 0.8 59.3 57.9 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.7 8.7 1.1 62.9 59.6 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 9.9 9.5 7.7 1.3 65.5 61.8 5.9 7.8 9.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 7.2 7.1 1.0 61.5 58.6 3.8 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.5 9.5 1.2 64.0 60.4 6.3 8.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------