***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.2 11.7 14.9 108.9 66.6 53.4 3.4 6.7 11.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.7 11.2 13.1 109.4 66.2 54.4 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.3 11.4 14.2 103.2 64.4 51.4 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.2 17.4 17.8 117.1 69.0 54.4 4.6 9.1 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.7 11.9 15.6 103.8 64.6 51.5 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.8 16.0 14.9 107.7 66.3 54.7 4.6 9.2 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.2 11.3 13.1 112.3 67.3 54.5 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.7 20.5 15.9 102.4 63.7 51.4 6.8 13.2 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.8 10.9 15.3 102.5 64.1 51.6 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.0 15.3 98.4 62.3 50.6 3.0 6.7 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.6 13.3 15.1 100.4 63.1 50.5 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.9 15.5 15.2 104.8 64.7 52.0 3.9 8.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.6 15.9 15.9 107.1 66.0 54.0 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.9 16.2 15.4 93.0 60.0 49.6 6.1 11.7 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.9 16.7 15.2 107.7 66.7 50.3 3.8 8.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.6 12.5 14.6 101.1 63.9 51.7 3.1 7.1 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.1 12.7 13.7 118.8 69.2 55.5 3.1 6.5 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.0 13.7 15.9 97.6 62.0 51.8 4.8 9.1 15.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.4 13.0 13.2 105.5 65.0 53.7 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.6 16.9 21.3 105.3 64.5 54.5 5.0 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.9 15.3 105.4 65.2 51.5 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.0 15.1 13.5 110.3 66.4 53.8 5.2 9.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.3 11.0 13.8 101.8 63.7 52.9 3.0 6.7 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.5 14.3 15.4 99.0 62.7 52.1 4.2 8.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.4 11.4 17.6 113.5 68.0 54.7 3.3 6.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.1 18.0 17.4 116.4 68.8 58.2 4.8 9.6 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.8 15.7 109.4 66.5 53.7 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.5 14.7 15.2 107.3 66.2 51.5 3.8 8.2 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 20.4 22.4 17.7 98.7 61.7 51.8 7.2 15.0 26.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.1 11.5 13.2 106.4 65.3 53.4 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------