***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 15.1 19.2 16.0 5.1 94.9 93.2 9.2 11.4 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 13.7 16.8 15.6 4.5 91.9 89.1 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 15.1 18.4 16.2 4.9 92.3 90.2 9.2 11.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 9.5 12.8 12.2 4.5 92.8 91.3 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 15.1 18.6 14.5 5.0 93.3 91.5 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 14.5 18.3 13.6 5.3 94.1 92.3 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 13.4 16.8 15.7 4.8 93.1 90.6 8.0 10.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 6.6 7.8 12.3 3.7 84.7 83.1 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 15.6 18.9 15.3 4.8 92.7 90.7 9.8 11.9 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 14.3 16.3 13.8 4.4 88.5 86.7 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 15.2 18.3 15.1 4.9 92.1 90.2 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 14.9 17.1 13.3 4.2 88.6 86.9 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 14.8 18.0 15.2 5.1 93.0 90.8 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 15.5 17.6 14.9 4.0 85.5 82.8 9.5 11.9 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 11.9 15.1 14.4 4.7 95.4 94.3 7.6 9.1 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 15.7 19.4 14.9 5.3 94.0 92.0 10.0 12.1 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 12.8 15.6 14.9 4.3 90.7 87.6 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 13.3 14.7 13.1 4.1 85.8 83.8 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 14.3 17.3 15.7 4.4 90.9 88.1 8.5 10.7 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 11.6 12.3 10.8 3.2 80.2 78.4 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 15.1 18.6 16.0 4.9 93.0 91.1 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 13.6 16.2 14.8 3.9 88.5 85.0 8.2 10.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 14.2 16.5 15.7 4.3 89.1 86.5 8.6 10.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 15.8 18.1 15.2 4.5 88.5 86.2 10.0 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 13.9 17.7 15.1 5.1 94.8 93.3 8.4 10.4 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 13.6 15.5 12.6 4.0 89.6 88.1 9.1 10.7 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 14.9 19.1 15.8 5.3 95.2 93.7 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 12.3 14.8 13.3 4.6 93.5 91.9 8.1 9.6 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 11.2 12.6 12.4 3.9 84.4 82.4 6.1 8.1 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 13.7 17.0 15.9 4.8 93.0 90.6 8.2 10.2 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------