***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 3.4 4.2 4.5 2.6 78.0 73.4 -0.2 1.4 2.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 3.0 3.5 3.8 2.2 74.4 70.5 -0.3 1.3 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 4.8 5.5 4.3 2.4 77.1 73.0 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 -0.6 0.4 1.9 2.6 78.2 73.8 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 2.9 3.6 2.3 2.6 77.3 73.4 -0.9 0.8 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 2.2 2.7 0.5 2.5 76.6 73.0 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 2.9 3.1 3.8 2.1 73.1 69.5 -0.3 1.1 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -2.4 -1.9 0.7 2.4 74.8 71.8 -5.8 -4.2 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 3.4 3.9 2.6 2.5 76.4 72.8 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 2.9 3.4 1.3 2.5 75.5 72.2 -0.6 1.0 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 2.7 3.5 1.9 2.6 77.4 73.8 -1.2 0.5 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 1.7 2.3 1.3 2.5 76.0 72.8 -2.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 2.3 2.8 1.0 2.6 76.5 73.2 -1.5 0.1 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 3.2 3.6 2.3 2.2 74.0 70.4 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 3.0 4.0 2.8 2.5 79.1 74.2 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 3.5 4.2 1.4 2.7 77.5 73.9 -0.3 1.4 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 2.5 2.6 3.7 2.0 72.0 68.5 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 0.8 1.2 0.6 2.4 74.6 71.3 -2.6 -1.1 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 2.9 3.4 3.8 2.2 75.0 71.0 -0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 -1.5 -1.0 -0.4 2.3 72.3 69.3 -5.8 -3.8 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 3.3 4.0 3.7 2.5 77.4 73.5 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 2.4 2.7 3.5 1.9 72.2 68.5 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 2.8 3.3 3.7 2.1 74.9 70.9 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 2.5 2.9 2.0 2.3 75.0 71.5 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 3.6 4.6 3.5 2.8 79.2 74.6 -0.1 1.5 3.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 2.7 3.1 1.1 2.6 77.3 73.8 -1.0 0.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 4.0 4.8 4.1 2.6 77.1 72.7 0.0 1.8 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 1.9 2.6 1.9 2.5 77.5 73.3 -1.8 -0.2 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 0.5 0.9 0.4 2.4 73.6 70.3 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 3.4 3.9 4.0 2.3 75.6 71.5 0.0 1.5 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------