***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 11.7 14.4 118.3 69.8 54.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.7 11.8 13.7 113.1 68.0 55.0 2.6 5.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.8 13.0 14.1 111.9 67.7 52.8 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.0 20.2 15.7 121.7 70.8 55.9 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.7 14.7 14.8 113.2 68.5 54.5 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.4 17.6 14.1 101.3 64.3 52.6 6.3 11.4 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.3 12.2 14.0 117.7 69.5 57.0 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 20.6 24.7 15.1 100.7 64.1 52.8 8.2 15.5 26.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.4 14.4 14.9 112.1 68.2 54.5 3.6 7.6 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.0 14.0 15.0 103.5 65.0 52.8 3.7 8.0 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.2 17.0 13.6 107.8 66.8 53.3 5.0 9.8 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.7 16.6 13.4 102.3 64.6 52.5 4.5 9.7 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.5 17.5 13.4 98.3 62.8 50.9 5.9 11.4 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.1 14.2 91.6 59.5 47.3 6.0 11.8 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.7 25.5 18.1 132.8 73.5 58.1 4.6 10.3 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.1 15.9 13.5 105.0 65.4 53.1 5.3 9.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.5 13.0 13.4 115.8 69.0 57.2 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 15.4 16.1 97.1 62.4 51.2 4.8 10.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 13.1 13.4 109.4 66.9 53.7 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 14.8 16.9 20.0 93.3 61.1 53.4 4.9 11.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.2 14.1 14.6 116.2 69.2 54.0 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.5 13.9 13.4 110.8 67.3 57.1 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.4 11.4 13.4 103.1 64.7 52.0 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 14.1 14.7 98.7 62.7 49.8 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.9 15.7 118.5 69.9 55.1 3.6 6.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.6 19.3 14.8 104.6 65.3 53.8 5.6 11.4 19.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.0 12.7 15.2 117.2 69.6 54.9 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.6 17.9 15.7 118.5 69.9 55.6 4.8 9.4 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 20.1 22.5 17.7 94.3 61.1 51.7 8.1 15.6 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.1 12.3 14.0 114.4 68.4 54.6 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------