***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 9999.0 10.1 10.3 -0.2 48.0 47.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 10.6 9.3 9.7 -0.6 42.6 42.9 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 12.0 10.2 9.9 -0.9 40.7 41.2 9.2 11.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 6.0 5.9 8.0 0.2 52.0 51.9 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 12.0 10.7 8.6 -0.6 43.3 43.8 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 11.4 10.9 7.7 -0.1 49.3 49.5 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 10.4 9.5 9.8 -0.4 45.6 45.7 8.0 10.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 2.1 2.4 6.7 -1.6 33.4 35.3 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.7 10.6 9.2 -1.0 39.2 40.0 9.8 11.9 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 8.8 9.2 7.5 -1.7 32.7 34.2 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 12.4 10.4 8.2 -1.0 39.3 40.3 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.3 10.2 7.6 -1.0 38.4 39.9 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 12.1 10.9 8.3 -0.5 44.5 45.3 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 8.5 8.9 8.4 -2.2 29.0 30.1 9.5 11.9 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 9.4 10.1 9.7 0.9 61.1 60.7 7.6 9.1 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 12.6 11.5 8.4 -0.5 44.7 45.2 10.0 12.1 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 10.1 8.9 9.4 -0.6 43.1 43.3 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 7.7 7.9 6.7 -2.3 27.5 29.4 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 11.3 9.4 9.7 -0.9 40.2 40.6 8.5 10.7 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.9 6.1 5.1 -2.0 29.1 31.7 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 12.1 10.5 9.8 -0.7 41.9 42.3 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 10.9 9.1 9.4 -0.9 39.6 40.0 8.2 10.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.4 9.1 9.6 -1.2 37.0 37.6 8.6 10.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 9.2 9.5 8.2 -2.0 29.9 31.2 10.0 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 10.7 10.5 9.3 0.1 51.4 51.1 8.4 10.4 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 11.2 10.9 8.1 0.1 51.5 51.7 9.1 10.7 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 11.6 11.2 9.9 0.0 49.9 49.7 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 9.8 9.8 8.7 0.2 52.2 52.2 8.1 9.6 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 5.0 5.2 6.0 -2.3 26.4 28.8 6.1 8.1 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 10.7 9.5 10.0 -0.6 43.5 43.8 8.2 10.2 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------