***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 9999.0 4.1 5.9 1.8 71.3 68.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 2.7 3.7 4.9 1.2 65.1 62.8 0.8 2.4 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 5.9 6.3 5.6 1.7 71.4 68.5 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 2.1 3.1 4.2 2.9 82.9 80.4 -2.4 -0.6 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 3.7 4.4 4.6 2.4 78.9 76.0 0.5 1.9 3.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 3.3 4.8 3.2 3.3 89.3 86.1 -0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 2.6 3.6 5.0 1.3 66.3 63.9 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -0.9 -0.3 2.8 1.9 75.5 71.9 -4.1 -2.6 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 4.6 5.3 5.1 2.4 79.5 76.2 1.3 2.7 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 3.6 4.1 3.6 1.9 74.6 71.2 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 3.6 4.4 4.2 2.4 80.1 76.9 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.2 78.7 75.4 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 3.2 4.0 3.6 2.5 81.7 78.3 -0.1 1.2 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 3.3 4.0 3.9 0.9 63.3 60.7 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 3.9 5.1 5.7 3.4 87.3 84.9 0.4 1.7 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 4.4 5.3 4.1 2.8 83.6 80.5 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 2.5 3.1 4.4 0.9 61.3 59.5 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 0.9 1.8 2.5 1.3 68.0 64.8 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 2.8 3.8 5.0 1.3 66.5 63.8 1.1 2.5 3.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 -1.5 -0.4 0.9 1.2 65.8 63.1 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 4.5 5.0 5.7 2.1 75.6 72.8 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 2.1 2.5 4.3 0.7 58.9 57.3 0.6 1.9 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 47 53 100 3.4 3.7 5.0 1.4 69.7 66.3 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 2.3 3.5 4.0 1.4 69.7 66.3 0.9 2.1 3.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 4.1 4.6 5.2 2.3 76.0 73.3 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 3.2 3.8 3.3 2.3 80.1 76.9 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 5.0 5.6 5.5 2.0 72.5 69.9 1.4 3.1 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 2.9 3.9 4.8 3.1 84.8 82.5 -0.7 0.6 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 0.8 2.0 1.7 1.1 66.6 63.2 -1.3 0.4 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 3.1 4.4 5.3 1.4 67.7 65.1 1.2 2.7 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------