***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 -0.4 -1.1 1.5 -2.9 17.4 22.1 0.8 2.4 4.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 -1.5 -2.0 1.4 -2.5 20.0 24.7 -0.3 1.5 3.3 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 0.3 -0.2 1.8 -2.6 19.1 23.6 1.6 3.4 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 -5.1 -5.3 -0.5 -2.3 20.2 24.7 -3.5 -1.5 0.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 -1.4 -1.5 0.2 -2.4 21.3 25.4 -0.3 1.1 2.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 -2.1 -1.8 -1.7 -1.9 24.7 27.5 -0.9 0.5 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 -1.3 -1.8 1.2 -2.7 18.9 23.5 -0.1 1.6 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -7.0 -6.6 -1.3 -2.0 26.0 29.1 -5.8 -3.9 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 -0.7 -0.9 0.3 -2.3 21.1 25.6 0.4 2.0 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -2.0 25.1 28.6 -0.2 1.3 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 -1.6 -1.5 -0.2 -2.2 22.6 26.3 -0.5 1.0 2.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 -2.2 -2.1 -1.0 -2.3 22.6 25.9 -1.1 0.3 1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 -2.0 -2.0 -1.2 -2.3 21.4 25.0 -0.7 0.8 2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 -0.5 -0.4 0.6 -1.8 26.5 30.5 0.3 1.9 3.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 -0.7 -1.0 0.8 -2.3 18.4 23.5 0.4 1.7 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -2.2 22.3 25.8 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 -1.2 -1.6 1.2 -2.5 20.3 25.2 -0.1 1.5 3.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 -2.3 -2.1 -1.0 -1.7 28.7 32.0 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 -1.2 -1.5 1.5 -2.4 20.6 25.2 -0.1 1.6 3.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 -5.9 -5.1 -2.0 -1.6 31.9 34.2 -5.0 -3.1 -1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 -1.5 -1.9 1.1 -2.6 18.3 23.0 -0.1 1.6 3.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 -1.5 -1.8 1.5 -2.3 21.4 26.0 -0.5 1.1 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 -1.2 -1.3 1.6 -2.2 22.2 26.4 -0.2 1.4 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 -1.1 -1.2 0.3 -1.9 24.4 28.8 -0.4 1.0 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 -0.8 -1.2 0.9 -2.8 18.3 22.6 0.4 1.8 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 -1.3 -1.1 -1.4 -2.3 22.7 25.9 -0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 -1.7 -2.6 1.1 -3.0 17.2 21.8 -0.2 1.9 3.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 -2.2 -2.5 -0.3 -2.4 19.1 23.9 -1.1 0.2 1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -3.7 -2.9 -1.2 -1.4 33.1 35.5 -2.9 -1.0 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 -1.2 -1.8 1.5 -2.6 19.4 24.0 0.0 1.9 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------