***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 17.7 29.1 32.5 242.2 90.0 85.5 3.7 7.3 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 19.5 36.6 29.2 258.3 92.3 87.1 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 17.4 30.9 30.6 243.0 90.3 85.3 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 20.3 30.2 35.7 199.7 85.6 81.4 3.8 8.2 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 16.1 23.6 32.3 205.2 86.0 81.8 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 13.6 19.6 35.6 212.7 86.1 82.3 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 18.7 32.4 28.3 244.5 90.8 85.7 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 22.2 30.8 34.6 190.4 83.9 80.2 4.3 8.9 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 14.3 21.6 30.6 203.0 86.4 81.1 2.9 6.1 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 15.5 21.0 30.8 179.3 82.9 78.2 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 15.0 20.3 30.3 181.6 82.7 78.6 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 14.9 21.8 33.5 196.5 84.8 80.5 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 15.7 21.0 34.7 180.3 82.6 78.3 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 19.5 31.4 36.7 224.0 89.1 83.6 4.3 8.2 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 15.7 22.2 35.0 185.3 83.1 78.8 2.4 5.7 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 14.4 21.4 35.6 206.4 85.7 81.3 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 22.0 39.1 27.4 242.2 90.8 86.3 4.1 8.4 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 15.1 22.0 33.1 188.8 84.6 79.4 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 19.2 37.5 30.4 258.5 92.5 87.4 3.4 7.3 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 22.0 34.2 42.4 203.0 86.4 82.4 3.7 8.1 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 14.9 23.9 31.7 218.4 87.8 83.1 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 21.6 38.7 29.4 236.2 90.7 86.5 3.6 7.8 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 17.9 34.1 32.4 260.4 92.5 87.6 3.5 7.0 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 15.1 25.0 32.4 213.0 87.5 81.7 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 17.4 27.2 34.3 214.8 87.0 82.8 2.6 6.1 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 17.1 28.6 42.8 237.6 88.9 85.8 2.8 6.2 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 14.5 23.1 32.8 228.5 88.6 84.5 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 13.2 19.3 34.2 190.7 84.1 79.4 2.1 5.0 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 23.8 36.9 35.8 192.0 85.6 80.4 4.3 9.2 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 17.3 31.3 29.8 253.5 91.7 86.4 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------