***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 6.3 8.3 8.2 -0.4 45.8 47.6 6.7 8.8 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.1 8.2 -0.2 47.7 48.7 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.0 9.0 8.5 -0.4 45.1 47.1 7.4 9.6 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.8 2.5 5.4 -0.7 41.4 44.0 1.3 3.7 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 6.7 8.6 6.4 -0.7 42.1 44.5 7.4 9.6 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.1 6.1 -0.5 44.7 46.3 6.6 8.7 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.1 8.2 -0.1 48.7 49.5 6.3 8.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 0.1 1.7 6.0 -0.7 42.4 44.6 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.3 9.3 7.2 -0.7 42.0 44.4 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.5 8.3 6.6 -0.7 42.3 44.5 7.1 9.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.9 8.8 6.6 -0.6 43.0 45.2 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.8 8.8 6.4 -0.6 43.5 45.5 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.3 6.3 -0.4 45.6 46.9 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.3 7.6 -0.6 44.1 45.5 7.6 10.1 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.9 6.3 5.9 -0.8 40.0 43.6 5.4 7.5 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.6 9.6 6.4 -0.5 44.2 46.0 8.1 10.3 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.5 8.1 -0.2 47.8 48.2 5.8 7.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.4 6.9 6.7 -0.7 43.2 45.0 5.8 7.6 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.3 8.4 -0.3 47.0 48.1 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.9 5.6 4.9 -0.6 43.2 44.9 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 7.1 8.9 7.7 -0.6 42.7 44.9 7.7 9.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.9 8.0 -0.3 46.6 47.2 6.1 8.4 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.0 8.6 -0.3 46.2 47.4 6.3 8.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.5 9.4 7.6 -0.6 43.9 45.6 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.4 8.1 6.6 -0.6 43.5 45.3 6.9 8.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.7 8.6 6.2 -0.3 46.7 48.0 7.1 9.0 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 7.2 9.3 7.7 -0.3 46.3 47.7 7.6 9.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.3 7.0 5.7 -0.8 40.8 43.8 5.9 8.2 10.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 3.6 5.5 6.1 -0.6 43.4 45.2 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.1 8.2 -0.2 47.3 48.7 6.4 8.4 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------