***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 14.3 16.6 13.5 3.7 85.4 78.7 8.9 11.2 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 13.2 15.7 13.8 4.0 87.1 79.9 7.9 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 14.5 16.6 14.1 3.9 85.0 78.2 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 8.4 10.7 10.5 3.5 84.0 76.0 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 14.2 16.0 12.1 3.6 83.2 76.9 9.1 11.3 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 13.6 15.1 11.1 3.5 81.6 75.7 8.8 10.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 13.0 15.4 13.6 3.9 86.9 80.1 7.8 9.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 6.2 7.4 11.4 3.7 83.0 77.4 2.1 3.8 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 14.7 16.7 13.0 3.7 83.6 77.3 9.5 11.7 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 13.8 15.3 12.2 3.8 82.6 76.7 9.0 11.0 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 14.5 16.2 12.5 3.7 82.9 76.6 9.4 11.5 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 14.4 16.2 11.9 3.7 83.9 77.8 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 14.1 15.5 12.1 3.5 81.7 76.1 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 15.3 17.1 13.4 3.9 82.4 76.5 9.2 11.8 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 11.3 13.1 11.9 3.6 87.0 78.0 7.5 9.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 14.8 16.6 12.0 3.6 82.7 76.7 9.8 12.0 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 12.5 14.8 13.3 3.8 86.6 79.8 7.5 9.6 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 13.0 14.3 12.1 3.9 82.3 76.8 8.2 10.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 13.8 16.4 14.0 4.0 86.8 79.7 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 11.3 12.6 10.3 3.6 81.9 77.1 6.1 8.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 14.3 16.1 13.4 3.6 82.8 76.6 9.1 11.3 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 13.3 15.5 13.4 3.7 85.6 78.7 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 13.6 15.9 14.3 4.1 86.4 79.3 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 15.2 16.9 13.4 3.9 82.8 76.7 9.7 12.0 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 13.1 14.7 12.1 3.4 82.9 76.6 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 13.1 14.5 11.4 3.7 85.3 80.0 8.9 10.6 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 14.2 16.1 13.0 3.5 84.1 77.8 8.9 11.1 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 11.8 13.5 11.3 3.6 84.9 76.5 7.9 9.5 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 10.8 12.1 11.4 3.7 81.6 76.6 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 13.1 15.6 13.9 3.9 86.9 79.8 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------