***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 12.3 14.4 13.0 3.0 90.5 81.5 8.8 10.2 11.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 11.5 13.2 12.8 2.8 88.4 79.1 8.3 9.6 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 12.7 14.4 13.2 2.8 88.1 78.8 9.3 10.7 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 6.4 8.2 10.0 2.8 88.6 80.7 3.2 4.5 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 12.5 14.3 11.4 2.8 87.5 79.0 9.2 10.6 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 12.1 14.0 10.8 3.0 88.9 80.2 8.5 9.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 11.4 13.0 12.7 2.8 88.4 79.2 8.1 9.4 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 4.8 5.7 10.6 2.5 83.9 76.0 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 13.2 14.9 12.2 2.7 87.0 78.2 9.7 11.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 12.4 13.8 11.5 2.7 85.8 77.2 9.0 10.4 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 12.9 14.7 11.8 2.8 86.9 78.4 9.3 10.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 12.7 14.2 11.2 2.6 85.5 77.4 9.2 10.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 13.0 14.6 11.5 2.8 87.1 79.2 9.2 10.7 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 13.2 14.4 12.5 2.5 83.4 74.6 9.6 11.1 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 10.6 12.0 10.8 2.4 86.0 78.3 7.7 8.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 13.4 15.3 11.5 2.9 87.8 79.4 9.8 11.3 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 10.8 12.3 12.3 2.6 86.9 77.8 7.8 9.0 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 10.8 11.9 11.3 2.6 84.0 75.7 7.9 9.1 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 11.9 13.6 13.0 2.8 87.6 78.2 8.6 9.9 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 9.4 10.3 9.4 2.2 80.9 74.4 6.0 7.5 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 12.7 14.4 12.7 2.7 87.1 78.3 9.3 10.7 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 11.5 12.9 12.3 2.4 85.4 76.3 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 11.9 13.3 13.1 2.6 85.5 76.2 8.6 10.0 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 13.4 14.8 12.5 2.7 85.4 76.3 9.8 11.3 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 11.6 13.5 11.6 2.9 89.1 80.7 8.4 9.7 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 12.1 13.5 10.4 2.4 85.5 78.5 8.8 10.2 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 12.5 14.6 12.5 3.0 90.0 81.2 9.1 10.5 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 10.9 12.3 10.5 2.7 87.4 79.4 8.1 9.3 10.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 9.0 10.0 10.6 2.4 81.8 74.3 5.8 7.1 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 11.6 13.3 12.9 2.9 88.9 79.6 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------