***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 6.6 11.0 12.2 6.3 97.6 97.2 2.2 3.8 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 5.8 10.6 11.7 6.3 98.2 97.6 1.5 3.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 7.9 12.5 12.4 6.3 98.4 97.9 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 2.9 6.4 8.1 4.6 95.8 94.9 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 5.6 10.5 10.8 6.1 98.3 97.8 1.3 2.9 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 4.9 8.2 6.6 4.6 95.4 94.9 0.6 2.1 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 5.8 10.6 11.9 6.5 98.4 97.9 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 1.1 4.8 7.3 4.9 95.5 94.8 -3.7 -2.0 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 6.3 10.4 9.9 5.4 97.7 97.0 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 6.0 9.6 8.2 5.1 96.5 95.8 1.8 3.4 4.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 5.7 10.0 9.5 5.4 97.6 97.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 4.7 8.7 8.6 5.4 96.9 96.4 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 5.0 9.1 8.6 5.5 97.4 97.0 0.9 2.4 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 6.2 10.1 10.0 5.8 98.6 97.8 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 5.8 7.5 8.1 3.2 90.1 88.8 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 6.5 10.5 8.7 5.2 97.0 96.5 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 5.6 10.0 11.4 6.3 98.6 98.0 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 3.9 7.2 8.1 5.4 97.4 96.6 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 5.8 10.2 11.7 6.2 98.3 97.6 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 2.0 5.7 7.0 5.3 95.6 94.8 -2.7 -1.0 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 5.9 10.7 11.6 6.1 98.4 97.9 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 5.2 9.4 11.5 6.1 98.7 98.1 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 5.7 9.8 11.3 5.8 98.2 97.6 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 5.2 9.3 9.9 5.7 98.4 97.6 1.5 2.8 4.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 6.4 10.8 11.6 6.1 97.5 97.1 2.0 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 5.6 9.4 8.2 5.4 96.5 96.0 1.1 2.7 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 6.8 12.2 12.3 6.6 97.9 97.4 1.5 3.4 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 4.6 7.2 7.9 4.1 93.3 92.1 0.2 1.8 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 4.2 8.0 7.2 5.2 96.4 95.5 -0.4 1.3 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 6.3 11.0 12.1 6.3 98.1 97.6 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------