***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 15.5 14.9 14.4 117.9 69.4 54.6 5.0 8.6 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.7 17.1 13.3 125.7 71.9 56.1 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.8 18.5 14.7 118.8 69.8 55.2 6.3 10.9 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 16.0 23.4 17.3 125.8 71.8 55.5 6.4 11.9 19.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 20.5 16.9 125.6 71.6 55.6 5.3 10.1 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.9 24.5 17.1 128.6 72.5 55.7 6.2 11.9 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 15.7 15.5 12.7 121.2 70.6 55.1 5.2 8.8 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 22.6 33.6 18.2 125.5 71.5 56.0 8.2 16.2 27.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.5 18.8 17.0 121.6 70.4 55.6 4.5 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.1 21.8 17.9 122.5 70.6 55.3 6.0 11.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.9 23.9 16.7 126.8 72.0 56.2 6.0 11.6 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.2 26.7 16.6 125.6 71.7 55.7 4.8 11.3 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.1 24.2 16.7 121.7 70.5 53.9 5.4 11.6 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 26.3 27.5 19.0 127.5 72.1 58.3 8.4 14.7 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 6.2 25.2 17.3 120.6 70.7 53.3 5.1 11.3 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.3 23.5 16.5 126.2 71.8 55.4 5.6 11.2 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.5 17.2 12.7 126.7 72.1 55.4 5.6 9.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.7 24.5 18.2 121.7 70.2 54.8 6.1 12.3 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.2 19.7 14.0 128.4 72.5 56.9 5.2 9.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.9 28.2 22.5 121.4 70.3 55.0 5.8 13.0 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.2 18.0 15.6 119.3 69.7 54.7 5.6 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.5 19.7 14.1 134.4 74.0 56.9 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 17.4 18.9 15.3 129.2 72.7 57.9 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.8 20.9 17.1 121.0 70.2 55.5 5.8 11.0 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.5 15.0 16.1 120.2 70.0 54.4 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.8 25.4 17.1 121.7 70.5 53.8 6.0 12.5 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 16.0 15.2 14.8 118.1 69.5 54.6 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.3 20.7 16.9 125.8 71.8 54.9 4.4 9.4 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.4 35.2 19.1 121.4 70.1 55.0 9.6 18.4 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.1 16.2 13.6 121.7 70.8 55.6 4.8 8.8 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------