***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 23.9 25.0 24.9 60.6 26.5 27.1 28.6 39.3 51.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 23.5 24.3 24.8 63.4 27.3 27.6 28.0 39.4 52.9 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 29.4 28.6 24.8 58.5 22.4 24.3 35.6 46.8 59.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 30.3 30.7 29.1 58.3 24.7 26.6 37.2 51.7 68.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 26.4 26.9 28.4 58.5 23.0 25.5 33.5 45.5 59.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 27.4 27.1 30.6 59.0 25.1 27.7 32.6 44.9 59.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 23.2 25.4 24.9 64.5 30.3 29.4 26.9 37.1 48.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 40.2 40.4 30.8 58.5 23.5 25.8 50.6 69.1 90.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 24.6 24.6 28.7 59.7 23.3 25.5 30.6 41.5 54.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 28.8 27.9 30.8 59.0 22.3 25.0 35.6 47.8 61.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 25.8 26.3 26.6 57.9 23.7 25.9 33.2 46.6 61.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 28.8 30.7 27.2 58.7 26.2 27.1 36.2 51.2 68.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 30.5 30.8 28.5 58.7 25.9 27.7 36.8 51.3 68.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 45.0 41.7 31.3 59.3 19.3 21.8 52.5 65.6 79.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 23.5 26.3 30.4 58.1 28.0 27.8 30.2 45.9 64.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 22.3 21.3 27.0 58.4 24.6 26.9 27.6 42.1 60.0 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 24.6 27.4 24.7 64.9 31.1 30.0 28.5 39.4 51.9 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 33.1 31.6 33.8 59.1 20.6 23.7 40.9 54.4 68.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 28.0 27.8 24.8 61.6 24.5 25.5 33.2 45.0 58.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 38.8 37.5 40.0 57.7 20.8 24.4 48.1 63.8 81.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 25.6 26.4 26.9 60.3 25.0 26.3 31.3 42.2 54.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 29.1 29.3 25.7 63.6 26.9 27.7 33.4 45.1 58.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 31.7 29.8 25.6 59.6 21.5 23.0 36.5 46.6 57.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 26.3 23.2 29.7 57.9 19.5 22.3 33.9 47.9 64.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 24.4 24.6 28.9 59.7 25.6 27.1 29.4 40.3 53.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 27.3 28.0 27.7 56.3 25.4 26.6 34.0 47.7 63.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 26.6 27.2 27.5 61.0 26.7 27.9 30.9 41.3 52.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 22.6 23.2 29.2 58.4 25.8 27.1 28.4 41.8 57.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 52.7 50.5 36.0 58.5 20.2 23.5 63.6 81.3 100.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 24.4 24.3 24.7 62.1 26.3 26.9 28.3 39.2 51.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------