***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 10.3 17.8 19.7 232.3 88.6 79.0 2.2 4.5 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 9.5 19.3 19.4 253.8 91.0 79.2 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 10.3 19.1 18.7 228.5 88.3 77.5 1.9 4.3 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 9.1 12.1 18.5 172.7 81.2 71.7 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 9.4 14.3 19.0 201.1 85.1 75.6 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 6.5 8.8 16.9 186.2 83.0 73.7 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 9.4 17.3 19.3 242.3 89.9 79.4 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 11.4 16.4 21.7 182.2 82.6 74.8 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 8.7 13.4 18.7 208.9 86.1 76.4 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 9.9 14.8 20.6 196.5 84.7 75.8 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 7.7 11.6 19.1 192.7 84.0 74.8 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 9.1 12.7 19.4 186.0 83.0 74.9 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 8.5 12.6 20.0 199.3 84.8 76.3 1.9 3.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 17.1 29.7 23.1 226.5 88.2 78.0 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 7.0 9.6 16.4 163.8 79.8 68.2 1.5 3.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 7.7 11.5 20.0 199.3 84.7 76.3 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 11.6 24.0 19.6 247.5 90.4 79.5 2.0 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 10.4 16.3 22.2 204.4 85.8 76.7 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 11.2 21.8 19.5 249.7 90.5 78.9 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 11.6 16.7 25.4 184.4 82.9 75.7 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 9.4 15.0 18.8 211.1 86.3 76.1 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 12.3 24.1 20.0 237.3 89.6 78.1 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 12.5 22.7 19.5 235.6 89.2 78.4 2.5 5.3 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 13.3 22.1 20.6 220.1 87.5 77.3 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 10.0 14.8 20.5 212.0 86.2 76.9 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 7.8 10.6 18.6 169.8 80.7 72.7 1.8 3.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 9.2 15.7 20.4 227.3 88.0 78.7 1.8 3.7 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 7.2 9.9 17.1 171.8 81.0 70.6 1.8 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 15.1 22.5 23.3 196.7 84.7 76.7 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 9.4 17.3 18.9 240.6 89.8 78.4 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------