***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 9999.0 17.7 17.1 3.4 83.9 81.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 16.9 17.8 16.8 3.2 82.7 80.5 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 18.4 19.3 17.2 3.3 81.8 79.7 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 12.6 13.7 14.9 3.5 83.2 81.9 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 18.4 19.2 16.1 3.6 82.5 80.9 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 18.1 20.0 15.7 4.7 88.1 86.5 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 16.7 17.6 16.7 3.3 83.5 81.3 12.5 14.1 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 10.0 11.0 15.4 4.0 84.2 82.3 6.0 7.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 18.5 19.5 16.9 3.5 82.1 80.3 13.5 15.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 18.1 19.1 16.0 3.7 82.2 80.2 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 18.7 19.6 16.1 3.6 82.0 80.4 13.4 15.5 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 18.4 19.8 15.9 4.0 84.8 83.0 13.1 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 18.7 20.6 16.5 4.5 87.8 86.0 13.5 15.5 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 18.4 19.4 16.6 3.1 78.6 76.2 13.2 15.4 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 16.7 17.7 15.9 3.4 84.2 82.9 12.4 14.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 19.4 20.7 16.2 4.1 85.1 83.6 14.2 16.1 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 15.9 16.8 16.4 3.2 82.6 80.2 12.0 13.5 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 17.2 18.3 15.7 3.8 82.1 79.8 12.1 14.1 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 17.4 18.3 17.0 3.2 82.1 79.9 12.9 14.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 15.4 17.0 14.5 4.4 86.4 84.2 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 18.2 19.1 17.2 3.4 81.9 80.1 13.4 15.2 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 16.9 17.8 16.4 3.0 81.2 78.9 12.6 14.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 17.4 18.3 17.0 3.2 81.1 78.9 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 18.6 19.5 16.6 3.4 80.2 77.9 13.5 15.5 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 17.3 18.3 16.2 3.6 84.9 83.1 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 17.9 20.1 16.0 4.8 90.4 88.6 13.3 15.0 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 18.0 19.1 16.7 3.5 84.9 82.9 13.2 15.0 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 17.7 18.6 15.6 3.5 82.8 81.6 12.6 14.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 14.8 16.4 15.4 4.1 84.6 82.1 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 17.0 17.9 17.0 3.3 83.0 80.9 12.7 14.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------