***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 9999.0 7.8 9.4 3.5 83.3 82.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 6.8 8.2 9.6 4.0 86.7 85.1 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 9.0 9.9 9.2 3.4 83.8 82.4 4.8 6.4 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 4.7 6.6 7.5 4.0 89.5 88.1 -0.1 1.6 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 5.9 6.9 7.6 3.5 84.6 83.4 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 5.2 6.2 5.2 3.2 84.4 83.0 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 6.7 8.0 9.6 4.1 86.7 85.1 2.3 3.9 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 2.4 3.4 5.9 3.3 83.6 82.4 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 6.7 7.5 7.6 3.0 81.2 80.0 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 6.3 7.3 6.7 3.4 83.3 82.1 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 5.9 6.7 6.8 3.1 82.5 81.3 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 5.2 6.1 6.2 3.1 82.3 81.1 1.0 2.6 4.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 5.2 5.8 5.9 2.9 80.0 78.9 1.1 2.7 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 7.1 8.2 8.0 3.5 84.4 83.0 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 6.8 8.5 8.1 3.6 88.4 86.7 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 6.7 7.6 6.3 3.2 82.9 81.7 2.5 4.1 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 6.9 8.6 9.7 4.3 88.7 86.9 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 4.7 5.5 5.9 3.2 82.3 81.1 1.1 2.5 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 6.8 8.2 9.4 3.8 86.4 84.8 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 2.2 2.8 4.1 3.0 80.3 79.2 -1.7 -0.2 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 6.8 7.7 8.8 3.3 82.9 81.6 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 6.2 7.9 9.6 4.2 88.5 86.7 1.7 3.3 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 6.6 7.9 9.0 3.6 86.2 84.6 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 6.0 7.1 7.6 3.4 84.0 82.6 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 6.9 8.1 8.6 3.7 85.4 84.0 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 5.6 6.8 6.6 3.8 86.4 85.2 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 7.4 8.6 8.9 3.6 83.6 82.2 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 5.2 6.6 7.6 3.7 88.3 86.8 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 5.3 6.1 5.0 3.0 81.0 79.8 0.9 2.6 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 7.3 8.5 9.5 3.8 85.3 83.9 2.6 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------