***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 1.6 1.1 2.9 -2.2 16.3 20.3 2.4 3.4 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 0.8 0.5 2.8 -1.9 18.8 22.4 1.7 2.7 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 3.0 2.6 2.6 -2.1 16.2 20.4 3.9 4.9 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 -2.0 -2.5 0.4 -2.1 16.0 20.8 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 0.6 0.1 0.6 -2.2 14.5 19.5 1.3 2.2 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -2.0 14.6 21.1 0.7 1.6 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 1.0 0.7 2.8 -2.0 19.0 22.7 1.7 2.7 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 -3.8 -4.4 -0.5 -2.1 15.0 20.9 -3.1 -2.2 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 1.4 0.9 1.3 -2.1 15.1 20.2 2.1 3.1 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 1.1 0.5 0.1 -2.2 15.1 20.5 1.7 2.6 3.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 0.6 0.0 0.3 -2.2 14.0 19.3 1.3 2.2 3.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 -0.2 -0.7 -0.1 -2.2 13.9 19.5 0.6 1.4 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -2.2 13.8 19.6 0.9 1.8 2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 1.9 1.5 1.3 -2.1 15.9 20.5 2.6 3.4 4.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 1.0 0.6 1.0 -2.0 15.6 20.5 1.8 2.7 3.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 1.2 0.7 -0.1 -2.2 13.6 19.1 2.1 3.0 3.8 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 1.2 0.9 2.7 -1.8 20.3 23.9 1.8 2.7 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -2.2 15.7 21.4 0.3 1.1 1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 1.1 0.9 2.8 -1.9 18.8 22.4 1.9 2.8 3.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 -3.3 -4.1 -1.7 -2.2 16.0 22.5 -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 1.1 0.6 2.1 -2.2 15.3 19.9 1.9 2.8 3.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 0.8 0.5 2.8 -1.7 20.4 24.0 1.4 2.3 3.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 1.3 1.0 2.5 -1.8 18.6 22.5 1.9 2.8 3.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 0.9 0.5 1.1 -2.1 15.7 20.7 1.5 2.3 3.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 1.5 1.2 1.4 -2.1 16.7 21.0 2.2 3.1 3.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -2.2 13.9 19.8 1.3 2.1 2.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 1.1 0.7 2.2 -2.1 17.0 21.1 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 -0.3 -0.7 0.6 -2.1 15.3 20.4 0.4 1.3 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 -0.9 -1.6 -0.9 -2.1 16.3 22.4 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 1.1 0.8 2.9 -2.0 17.9 21.6 2.0 3.1 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------