***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 1.7 1.9 3.9 -1.9 27.6 30.6 2.4 4.0 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.1 1.3 3.8 -1.7 29.5 32.1 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.4 3.7 3.7 -1.7 28.8 31.5 4.1 5.5 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -2.1 -1.9 1.5 -1.8 27.3 30.1 -1.3 0.2 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 0.7 0.8 1.7 -1.9 26.8 29.9 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.2 -1.9 25.5 29.1 0.7 2.2 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.3 1.4 3.7 -1.8 29.0 31.8 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 -4.2 -4.3 0.5 -2.0 24.0 27.8 -3.2 -1.5 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 1.9 2.0 2.4 -1.8 28.0 31.0 2.4 3.9 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 1.5 1.6 1.1 -1.9 26.4 29.6 2.2 3.6 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 1.0 1.0 1.4 -2.0 25.4 28.7 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 -0.2 -0.3 0.9 -2.1 23.7 27.4 0.6 2.1 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 0.2 0.2 0.6 -2.1 24.6 28.0 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 2.5 2.6 2.4 -1.7 28.9 31.8 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.5 1.7 2.0 -1.7 28.8 31.6 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 1.6 1.6 0.9 -2.0 24.9 28.2 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.7 1.9 3.7 -1.6 30.0 32.7 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 0.1 0.3 0.7 -1.9 27.2 30.3 0.7 1.9 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.6 1.8 3.8 -1.6 29.8 32.3 2.1 3.4 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 -3.2 -3.2 -0.5 -2.0 24.1 28.2 -2.3 -0.7 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 1.3 1.5 3.2 -1.8 28.2 31.0 1.9 3.4 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 1.2 1.6 3.7 -1.6 30.6 33.0 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.7 1.9 3.6 -1.6 30.1 32.6 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 1.4 1.6 2.2 -1.7 28.9 31.7 1.9 3.1 4.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 1.5 1.8 2.4 -1.8 28.2 30.9 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 0.7 0.5 0.9 -2.0 24.6 28.0 1.3 2.8 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 1.0 1.2 3.2 -1.8 28.2 31.1 1.8 3.5 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 -0.3 -0.1 1.7 -1.8 27.4 30.3 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 -0.9 -0.8 0.2 -1.9 26.6 30.0 -0.1 1.5 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.4 1.7 3.8 -1.8 28.8 31.6 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------