***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 57.2 63.0 70.9 144.3 78.4 72.3 26.8 37.5 49.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 55.7 62.4 63.5 138.5 76.6 70.4 22.3 34.1 48.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 65.1 72.6 69.1 141.9 77.9 71.7 29.9 42.6 57.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 52.6 73.1 74.1 133.0 74.7 64.9 33.5 46.7 62.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 59.7 67.0 73.5 139.0 77.3 67.8 32.7 43.7 55.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 50.4 60.4 70.0 138.7 77.4 66.4 23.2 34.1 47.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 49.4 56.0 63.6 140.3 77.0 70.7 19.6 30.1 43.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 85.9 102.1 81.8 144.8 80.1 70.4 43.0 59.8 78.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 54.6 60.6 72.4 136.5 76.4 67.5 28.7 38.8 50.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 65.3 75.8 79.7 142.0 78.9 69.6 33.5 45.8 59.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 58.1 67.6 74.0 141.4 78.5 68.0 30.2 41.3 54.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 61.9 72.7 74.4 143.5 79.3 69.3 31.4 43.4 56.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 61.8 74.5 75.5 141.4 78.6 68.0 30.3 43.2 58.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 82.9 92.8 82.6 139.5 77.9 71.3 42.4 57.9 75.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 42.0 58.4 68.1 125.3 71.2 60.8 22.6 35.6 51.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 55.8 67.3 71.4 138.7 77.5 66.5 25.1 37.2 52.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 55.0 61.1 61.0 135.5 75.6 68.9 22.2 34.4 49.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 70.9 81.2 84.2 146.3 80.6 72.7 38.1 50.3 63.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 62.0 68.1 64.6 136.9 76.3 70.2 25.4 38.5 54.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 79.0 90.9 99.2 144.8 80.0 72.3 44.7 58.1 73.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 59.4 67.4 71.5 139.5 77.2 69.4 28.2 40.2 54.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 60.6 67.7 64.0 133.9 75.2 68.6 25.9 39.1 55.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 64.7 70.2 67.9 136.2 76.2 70.2 28.0 41.2 56.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 72.0 81.4 77.9 143.4 79.1 72.0 33.1 47.0 62.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 56.9 67.3 79.2 144.7 78.7 71.7 24.4 36.3 50.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 60.2 70.5 77.0 143.4 78.8 70.6 29.2 41.4 55.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 54.3 61.5 74.5 144.8 78.7 72.4 23.9 34.7 47.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 41.6 56.2 66.9 127.4 72.5 61.3 25.0 36.3 49.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 94.1 105.9 89.9 147.3 81.1 73.6 57.0 71.0 86.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 54.6 60.6 65.4 140.3 77.2 71.3 22.0 33.2 47.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------