***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 11.1 14.9 20.6 174.7 81.7 71.3 2.9 5.4 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 10.8 13.3 18.2 164.7 80.2 70.7 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 12.1 16.1 20.0 172.7 81.5 71.0 2.2 4.8 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 9.8 12.7 21.1 155.8 78.5 66.4 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 10.7 13.6 19.5 151.3 77.8 65.6 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 7.3 10.0 21.3 173.3 81.7 67.2 2.2 3.8 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 10.1 13.3 18.7 169.7 80.9 71.3 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 13.0 17.3 21.8 160.0 79.3 65.4 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 9.5 12.2 19.2 156.1 78.7 65.7 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 10.6 13.7 20.1 151.5 77.8 64.1 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 8.9 11.6 20.4 155.8 78.7 66.5 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 10.6 14.1 21.4 167.0 80.6 66.9 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 10.0 13.2 20.8 161.1 79.7 64.3 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 17.7 23.7 22.7 162.6 80.1 67.7 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 7.1 9.7 21.3 159.8 79.2 63.6 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 8.0 10.4 20.5 161.8 79.8 66.4 1.9 3.8 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 12.1 14.9 17.3 157.3 78.8 68.8 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 13.0 16.7 22.1 160.3 79.8 66.4 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 12.7 15.5 18.4 162.3 79.8 70.0 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 13.5 17.6 26.9 159.0 79.5 66.3 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 10.3 13.4 19.8 163.2 79.9 68.6 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 13.5 15.8 17.4 148.3 77.1 67.8 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 13.1 16.3 19.3 163.7 80.1 69.7 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 14.3 18.7 21.4 165.0 80.5 67.8 3.3 6.7 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 10.6 13.6 22.1 164.4 80.1 70.1 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 9.2 13.3 23.6 172.6 81.6 68.9 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 10.6 14.3 21.7 171.4 81.2 71.4 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 7.5 10.0 19.8 155.0 78.4 63.9 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 18.7 25.0 24.8 166.2 80.9 67.2 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 11.1 14.0 19.2 171.7 81.2 71.6 2.6 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------