***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 11.4 15.4 19.6 155.4 78.5 67.8 2.2 5.0 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 6.5 11.7 15.4 137.4 74.7 64.1 2.5 5.1 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 12.0 16.6 19.4 159.5 79.2 68.4 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 12.3 17.8 22.5 153.4 78.0 65.4 2.6 5.8 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 13.7 19.2 25.6 192.2 84.4 74.5 3.7 6.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 10.5 15.9 22.6 179.3 82.5 72.5 2.0 4.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 5.3 8.9 15.3 133.8 73.8 62.5 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 17.2 27.8 29.9 209.1 87.1 77.3 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 11.4 15.7 23.7 179.7 82.7 73.1 2.8 5.4 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 16.2 25.7 29.7 210.7 87.1 78.2 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 12.1 18.9 26.7 201.2 85.8 75.0 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 11.5 18.4 25.6 195.0 85.1 74.3 2.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 13.6 21.0 27.0 196.2 85.2 75.9 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 18.6 27.5 25.2 173.4 81.7 73.4 4.3 9.1 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.8 11.8 16.7 128.7 72.9 53.7 2.2 5.0 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 11.1 17.2 24.7 183.9 83.3 72.3 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 6.5 10.4 13.9 121.0 70.5 60.7 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 14.6 25.0 30.6 217.6 88.2 80.5 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 11.7 14.9 16.5 144.0 76.2 66.1 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 17.5 31.0 33.7 220.9 88.7 80.5 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 13.1 18.8 22.1 167.4 80.7 70.0 2.9 6.0 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 8.3 14.9 15.6 132.0 73.3 64.3 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 14.1 18.7 18.6 151.7 77.8 67.9 3.1 6.8 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 16.5 26.7 25.3 192.6 84.5 75.9 3.2 7.2 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 12.2 18.3 24.9 176.5 82.0 72.6 1.6 4.4 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 13.5 20.6 23.4 191.4 84.4 76.0 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 9.9 13.4 21.4 162.6 79.8 70.2 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.5 12.2 20.0 147.4 76.8 61.1 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 19.6 32.1 31.5 217.1 88.1 80.6 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 9.6 12.3 16.3 144.5 76.3 65.2 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------