***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 2.0 1.6 5.7 -2.5 15.5 17.6 3.6 5.1 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 1.7 1.5 5.5 -2.3 17.1 19.3 3.4 5.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 4.2 3.9 6.0 -2.2 17.3 19.6 5.6 7.1 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 -0.8 -1.3 3.2 -2.3 17.0 19.4 0.7 2.4 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 1.5 1.0 4.0 -2.6 14.2 16.7 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 1.3 0.2 1.0 -2.9 10.9 14.5 2.6 3.9 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 1.9 1.8 5.6 -2.3 18.0 20.0 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 -3.0 -4.4 1.4 -2.9 9.8 13.8 -1.4 0.1 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 2.4 2.1 4.4 -2.1 18.1 20.7 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 2.5 1.8 2.5 -2.6 13.7 17.1 3.7 5.0 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 2.0 1.7 3.7 -2.3 16.0 18.9 3.3 4.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 1.1 0.1 2.2 -2.9 10.6 14.2 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 1.9 1.4 2.5 -2.6 13.8 16.8 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 3.0 3.0 4.5 -1.9 21.6 24.3 4.1 5.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.4 3.7 5.8 -0.9 33.2 34.9 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 2.8 2.4 2.9 -2.5 14.3 17.2 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 2.1 2.0 5.4 -2.2 19.2 21.0 3.5 5.1 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 1.3 0.6 2.0 -2.8 14.3 17.4 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 2.1 1.9 5.7 -2.1 18.3 20.7 3.5 5.1 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 92 8 0 100 -1.9 -3.7 -0.2 -3.8 6.7 10.5 -0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 2.0 1.9 5.5 -2.1 18.7 21.0 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 1.8 2.0 6.0 -1.8 23.1 25.0 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 2.3 2.2 5.7 -1.9 19.4 21.9 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 2.1 2.1 4.4 -2.0 20.6 23.2 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 2.5 1.8 4.8 -2.8 13.3 15.5 4.0 5.4 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 2.4 1.2 1.4 -3.3 9.0 12.4 3.7 4.8 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 1.9 1.3 5.2 -2.7 14.5 16.6 3.7 5.4 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 1.6 1.6 3.9 -1.8 24.2 26.2 2.3 3.6 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 0.0 -1.4 1.0 -3.1 10.7 14.5 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 88 12 0 100 2.1 1.7 5.8 -2.3 16.7 19.0 3.7 5.3 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------