***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 11.7 12.2 -0.8 32.4 37.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 11.3 11.9 12.2 -0.7 35.7 40.0 11.7 12.8 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 12.1 12.6 12.5 -0.8 34.5 39.5 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.7 6.3 10.4 -0.8 33.9 39.0 6.2 7.4 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 11.9 12.4 11.0 -0.9 32.3 38.3 12.5 13.6 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 11.4 11.6 9.8 -1.1 29.9 37.8 11.9 13.1 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 11.0 11.5 12.0 -0.8 33.2 38.3 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 4.3 4.6 10.0 -1.0 30.3 37.9 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 12.4 12.7 11.6 -0.9 32.0 38.2 12.8 14.0 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 11.9 12.1 10.7 -1.1 30.0 37.3 12.3 13.5 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 12.2 12.6 10.9 -0.9 31.7 38.4 12.7 13.9 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 12.0 12.3 10.7 -0.9 31.9 39.2 12.4 13.6 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 12.3 12.5 10.5 -0.9 31.9 39.5 12.6 13.9 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 12.2 12.6 11.7 -1.0 31.5 38.1 12.8 14.1 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 11.0 11.6 10.9 -0.5 38.3 42.0 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 12.7 13.1 10.7 -0.9 31.9 38.8 13.2 14.4 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 10.8 11.2 11.8 -0.8 33.0 38.1 11.2 12.3 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 11.0 11.1 10.3 -1.2 28.3 36.4 11.5 12.6 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 11.6 12.2 12.5 -0.6 37.3 41.2 11.9 13.1 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 8.9 9.1 8.6 -1.2 29.0 37.6 9.4 10.6 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 12.1 12.4 12.0 -0.9 31.9 37.8 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 11.3 11.9 12.0 -0.7 34.5 39.3 11.7 12.9 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 11.6 12.4 12.6 -0.6 37.7 41.8 12.0 13.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 12.5 12.8 11.6 -1.0 30.9 37.7 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 11.2 11.5 10.9 -0.9 32.1 37.9 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.0 12.3 10.3 -0.8 33.9 41.3 12.3 13.4 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 11.8 12.1 11.6 -0.9 31.2 37.3 12.2 13.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 11.3 11.7 10.7 -0.8 34.8 39.8 11.6 12.6 13.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 8.1 8.3 9.6 -1.2 28.8 37.1 8.6 9.9 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 11.3 11.8 12.4 -0.7 35.7 40.1 11.6 12.8 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------