***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 2.9 6.1 7.2 62.5 48.5 35.8 3.2 6.3 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.4 6.6 6.6 62.4 48.2 36.1 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.4 9.0 7.8 67.7 51.2 38.5 4.3 8.6 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.8 9.2 9.0 63.3 49.7 37.9 4.9 9.3 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.0 10.1 9.3 68.7 51.8 40.2 5.0 9.4 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.0 9.4 10.2 72.8 53.7 44.2 4.7 8.5 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.5 6.7 6.5 62.0 47.7 35.6 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.6 11.9 9.2 65.8 49.3 40.6 6.8 12.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.6 9.3 9.6 73.1 53.2 41.4 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.0 9.7 9.8 70.6 51.6 41.8 4.8 9.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.3 8.9 8.7 66.9 51.4 41.2 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.6 8.8 8.0 62.8 48.7 39.9 4.8 9.2 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.7 8.9 9.1 66.9 50.6 42.1 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.6 10.8 9.8 72.8 52.9 42.3 5.1 9.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.2 6.5 8.7 59.3 48.6 36.4 3.2 6.8 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.7 8.7 8.9 67.2 51.4 41.7 4.7 8.5 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.4 6.7 6.4 64.8 48.3 34.9 3.7 7.1 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.1 9.5 10.7 73.0 51.7 43.0 4.7 8.9 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.8 7.5 6.9 63.6 49.4 37.6 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.3 10.8 11.9 67.4 48.6 40.8 5.9 11.4 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.3 9.9 8.5 69.2 51.7 39.4 5.0 9.2 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.3 8.1 6.8 64.5 48.7 36.7 4.5 8.4 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.0 7.8 7.7 66.4 50.9 39.4 4.1 7.7 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.6 9.7 9.8 74.2 53.3 42.4 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.6 6.6 8.3 61.7 48.1 36.7 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.9 9.0 8.6 65.0 49.7 40.6 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.1 6.0 7.7 60.4 47.3 35.9 3.2 6.7 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.3 7.3 9.0 63.5 50.2 38.6 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.7 12.9 10.8 69.3 49.7 42.0 7.1 13.1 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.4 6.7 6.8 62.7 48.7 36.7 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------