***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.2 11.2 -1.1 36.5 41.7 10.8 12.7 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 10.4 11.3 11.1 -1.0 37.9 42.4 10.8 12.5 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 10.8 11.8 11.3 -1.1 37.4 42.2 11.3 13.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.0 9.3 -1.2 35.9 41.9 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.3 9.8 -1.2 35.8 41.9 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.2 8.5 -1.7 31.4 40.2 10.4 12.4 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 9.9 11.0 11.0 -1.0 37.7 42.4 10.5 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.3 8.9 -1.4 34.4 41.6 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 11.0 11.8 10.4 -1.2 36.4 42.0 11.3 13.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.3 9.5 -1.3 35.8 41.9 11.0 12.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.4 9.6 -1.3 35.1 41.9 11.1 13.1 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 10.4 10.9 9.3 -1.4 33.0 41.1 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 10.6 10.8 8.9 -1.7 30.9 39.9 11.0 13.0 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 11.2 12.3 10.5 -1.1 38.3 42.8 11.7 13.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.1 9.5 -1.1 36.8 42.4 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 11.0 11.5 9.3 -1.5 33.2 41.0 11.5 13.5 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 10.0 10.9 10.9 -0.9 38.8 42.9 10.4 12.0 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 9.6 10.5 9.3 -1.3 36.6 42.3 10.1 12.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.5 11.3 -1.0 38.2 42.6 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.2 8.2 7.4 -1.3 34.9 41.8 8.0 10.0 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 10.7 11.5 10.9 -1.2 36.6 41.9 11.1 13.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.5 10.9 -1.0 38.5 42.5 10.9 12.6 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.7 11.3 -1.0 38.4 42.8 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 11.2 12.2 10.5 -1.1 37.8 42.7 11.7 13.6 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 9.8 10.6 9.8 -1.2 35.8 41.6 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 10.5 10.7 8.7 -1.7 29.2 39.3 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 10.2 11.2 10.5 -1.2 36.0 41.6 10.8 12.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.0 9.5 -1.2 35.7 41.9 10.7 12.1 13.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.5 7.6 8.5 -1.3 36.5 42.6 7.2 9.2 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 10.1 11.1 11.2 -1.0 37.4 42.2 10.6 12.4 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------