***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 56.6 57.4 50.8 122.1 70.0 60.7 25.9 38.2 52.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 42.3 46.9 44.5 107.6 63.3 55.3 21.8 34.5 50.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 61.0 64.5 52.4 126.6 72.0 62.4 27.7 40.9 56.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 65.2 66.3 58.3 124.5 70.9 61.5 30.9 44.4 60.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 56.5 64.2 63.8 141.9 78.0 67.9 29.3 40.0 51.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 47.0 57.6 69.8 149.2 79.7 70.7 18.6 28.9 41.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 37.4 42.7 45.0 109.0 64.0 56.2 19.8 31.1 44.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 79.1 88.9 67.7 138.2 76.9 67.8 36.1 52.1 71.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 51.8 57.9 61.5 137.9 76.7 66.0 26.0 36.2 47.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 61.2 70.1 67.4 139.6 77.6 67.7 30.1 42.2 56.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 55.1 64.4 61.9 146.7 79.5 69.7 25.3 36.2 48.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 55.7 63.7 61.5 143.7 78.5 69.3 24.0 35.3 48.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 58.6 70.0 66.2 148.5 79.9 70.9 24.2 36.5 51.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 81.5 78.9 59.3 116.7 67.7 59.8 41.8 58.1 76.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 52.9 60.8 70.4 141.2 76.8 67.4 19.2 31.1 46.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 52.7 62.7 62.4 146.7 79.3 70.0 21.0 32.1 45.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 40.8 43.6 41.5 102.8 60.9 53.5 21.3 33.7 49.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 60.2 67.3 71.2 133.8 75.9 66.8 31.8 43.3 56.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 48.5 55.4 45.5 109.9 64.4 56.2 24.7 39.4 57.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 68.3 70.5 81.2 121.3 70.0 62.6 34.9 49.2 65.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 57.9 62.9 55.4 133.0 74.4 64.1 27.5 39.3 53.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 26.2 50.7 44.0 104.4 61.5 54.4 25.6 39.4 56.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 49.4 59.8 49.0 114.8 66.8 58.6 27.3 41.6 58.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 67.9 74.6 62.7 130.7 74.3 64.9 32.4 46.7 63.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 58.8 61.2 60.6 128.1 72.7 63.8 23.8 36.7 52.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 58.3 68.2 65.7 146.6 79.3 71.2 22.1 34.3 49.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 51.8 51.4 55.0 119.9 69.1 60.5 21.9 33.7 48.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 52.3 57.6 64.5 137.7 75.6 66.1 19.3 31.0 45.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 83.8 87.7 72.7 125.6 72.2 64.1 47.6 62.9 79.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 42.3 50.4 47.4 113.9 66.3 57.9 22.1 34.6 49.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------