***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.3 3.6 5.4 0.3 53.3 53.0 1.7 3.3 4.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 0.6 2.9 5.0 0.3 54.5 54.0 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.1 5.3 0.3 54.1 53.8 3.3 4.7 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.1 0.0 2.9 0.5 56.1 55.4 -1.9 -0.5 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 0.2 2.7 3.4 0.5 57.1 56.3 0.5 2.1 3.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 2.2 2.0 1.6 0.4 55.3 56.1 -0.3 1.4 3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 0.8 3.0 5.1 0.3 54.3 53.9 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -1.9 2.0 0.5 56.8 56.5 -4.1 -2.5 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 1.0 3.5 3.9 0.6 57.7 56.8 1.3 2.9 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 3.1 3.2 2.7 0.6 57.7 57.0 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.8 3.0 0.5 56.9 56.4 0.4 2.1 3.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 1.9 1.8 2.4 0.4 55.7 55.7 -0.5 1.2 2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.3 2.1 0.4 55.2 55.5 0.2 1.8 3.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.0 3.7 3.5 0.3 54.6 54.5 2.2 3.4 4.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.9 3.8 0.5 55.9 55.2 0.8 2.4 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.5 2.5 0.4 55.8 55.7 1.3 3.0 4.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 0.9 3.0 5.0 0.4 55.7 54.8 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 1.4 1.4 2.1 0.6 57.0 56.6 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 0.9 3.1 5.0 0.3 54.2 53.9 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -1.1 0.8 0.5 56.6 56.6 -3.9 -1.8 0.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 0.8 3.1 4.8 0.4 55.3 54.8 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 0.6 2.6 4.8 0.3 54.9 54.3 0.9 2.2 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.0 2.9 4.9 0.3 53.9 53.8 1.4 2.7 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 2.7 2.6 3.4 0.4 55.9 55.6 0.8 2.2 3.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.0 3.1 4.2 0.3 53.3 53.0 1.3 2.8 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 4.0 2.7 2.0 0.4 56.4 56.7 0.4 2.1 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.0 3.5 5.0 0.3 53.5 53.2 1.4 3.2 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 1.7 1.7 3.0 0.5 57.0 56.3 -0.7 1.0 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 1.2 1.1 1.7 0.5 56.8 56.5 -1.0 0.6 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.1 3.4 5.1 0.3 54.1 53.6 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------