***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.0 2.8 6.0 -1.0 35.1 40.0 2.6 4.3 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.9 2.7 5.8 -0.8 38.2 41.9 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.1 4.9 6.1 -0.9 37.0 41.3 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -1.1 0.1 3.6 -0.6 40.8 43.5 -0.7 1.0 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 1.0 2.2 4.0 -0.7 38.7 42.6 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 0.4 1.6 2.4 -0.7 40.4 44.0 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.4 5.8 -1.0 36.0 40.3 2.2 3.6 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -2.8 -1.5 2.6 -0.7 39.8 44.0 -2.2 -0.5 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.0 3.1 4.5 -0.7 38.6 42.8 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 1.8 3.0 3.2 -0.7 39.9 43.9 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.1 2.4 3.5 -0.7 39.2 43.1 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 0.3 1.4 3.0 -0.8 38.6 43.0 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 0.4 1.5 2.7 -0.8 38.3 42.6 1.0 2.6 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.9 4.4 -0.7 40.5 44.0 3.3 4.6 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.9 3.1 4.5 -0.5 42.1 44.3 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 1.8 3.1 3.1 -0.7 39.2 43.1 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.1 2.8 5.7 -0.8 37.8 41.7 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 0.7 1.6 2.8 -0.7 40.0 44.3 1.0 2.4 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.1 2.9 5.8 -0.7 39.1 42.6 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -2.4 -1.1 1.4 -0.6 41.1 45.6 -1.9 -0.3 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.6 5.5 -0.9 37.2 41.6 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.6 2.5 5.6 -0.7 39.6 42.9 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.2 3.1 5.8 -0.7 39.5 43.1 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 1.8 2.6 4.2 -0.7 39.5 43.4 2.1 3.4 4.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.1 3.0 4.9 -0.9 36.8 41.0 2.6 4.2 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 0.9 2.0 2.6 -0.7 39.4 43.0 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.6 2.5 5.6 -1.0 35.4 40.1 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 0.4 1.7 3.7 -0.5 41.8 44.3 0.9 2.4 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -0.1 1.3 2.3 -0.7 40.5 44.9 0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.1 2.9 5.9 -0.9 37.0 41.1 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------