***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 6.2 5.9 8.4 -0.2 47.0 47.4 5.2 6.0 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 6.1 6.2 8.4 0.3 54.5 54.4 5.0 5.9 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 8.3 8.0 8.5 -0.2 47.4 47.7 7.2 8.1 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 3.7 2.3 4.6 -1.2 34.4 35.1 2.2 3.2 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 5.6 4.9 6.6 -0.5 43.7 44.0 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 5.0 5.0 4.7 0.3 53.4 53.4 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 6.0 6.1 8.4 0.2 53.4 53.3 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 1.4 2.0 5.8 1.1 64.0 63.3 0.1 1.1 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 6.6 6.7 7.3 0.4 56.0 55.8 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 6.2 6.6 6.3 0.9 61.2 60.6 4.9 6.0 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 5.7 5.6 6.7 0.1 51.9 51.9 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 4.9 5.0 6.2 0.5 56.4 56.1 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 5.4 5.9 6.7 1.0 62.2 61.5 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.4 8.0 1.3 67.9 67.0 5.5 6.4 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 5.9 5.4 6.8 -0.4 43.4 43.9 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 6.6 6.4 6.0 0.0 50.3 50.4 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 6.1 6.2 8.2 0.4 55.6 55.4 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 5.1 5.6 6.0 1.0 61.9 61.4 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 6.2 6.3 8.5 0.4 55.9 55.7 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 3.4 3.6 5.7 2.1 74.3 72.9 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 6.1 5.8 8.0 -0.2 47.6 47.9 4.9 6.0 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 5.4 5.6 8.5 0.4 55.6 55.4 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 6.0 6.4 8.7 0.7 60.4 59.9 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 5.8 6.1 7.6 0.8 60.7 60.3 4.7 5.6 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 6.7 6.0 7.5 -0.6 42.5 43.0 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 5.6 6.1 6.3 1.0 62.5 61.8 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 6.7 6.4 8.2 -0.1 48.1 48.4 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 4.8 3.9 5.3 -0.8 39.3 39.9 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 5.4 5.5 6.1 1.8 71.9 70.8 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 6.4 6.3 8.5 0.1 51.6 51.6 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------