***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 3.7 10.3 11.1 85.6 58.8 40.5 4.0 7.7 13.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 3.7 10.8 9.9 86.3 58.5 39.0 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.4 10.7 11.3 89.3 60.0 40.9 3.7 7.6 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.2 11.3 81.1 57.8 42.3 3.7 8.3 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.2 8.9 11.0 80.6 57.4 41.9 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.8 7.8 10.2 81.1 56.8 42.4 3.1 6.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.4 9.5 10.0 84.8 58.1 39.7 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 5.0 12.4 11.0 74.2 53.4 40.6 4.4 10.7 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.1 8.6 11.6 83.5 57.7 41.4 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.3 8.6 11.7 79.4 55.3 41.0 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.4 8.3 10.2 77.4 55.7 41.5 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.3 9.7 74.0 54.3 41.3 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.9 10.3 77.3 55.4 41.6 3.5 7.3 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.6 12.0 13.1 85.6 57.7 40.2 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.3 9.2 11.5 83.1 58.8 43.9 3.0 6.6 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.9 10.0 78.3 56.3 42.2 3.6 7.1 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.4 10.3 9.9 86.0 58.5 40.6 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.6 9.1 12.6 80.7 55.3 40.7 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.3 10.2 10.3 88.3 59.3 39.2 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.2 10.3 14.3 72.6 51.9 38.9 4.4 9.5 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.3 9.4 11.5 86.9 59.2 41.5 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 3.4 10.4 10.7 86.8 58.8 39.7 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 3.4 10.9 11.0 89.3 59.7 39.8 4.0 7.8 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.6 9.6 12.4 87.7 58.7 41.5 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.3 9.4 12.0 82.9 58.2 41.2 3.1 6.8 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.1 7.6 9.9 72.1 53.6 40.0 2.9 6.6 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.9 8.2 11.4 83.1 57.8 40.5 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.8 7.5 10.4 80.0 57.5 43.4 2.6 5.5 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 5.1 13.0 13.2 78.1 54.1 39.9 5.2 11.2 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.4 9.3 10.3 85.9 58.7 39.2 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------