***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 18.0 18.0 16.7 1.8 71.1 66.4 14.2 15.8 17.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 17.8 18.0 16.8 2.0 72.6 67.7 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 18.5 18.8 17.0 2.1 73.2 68.0 14.7 16.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 11.6 11.7 14.8 1.7 70.8 66.0 7.8 9.5 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 18.5 18.7 15.5 2.0 72.1 67.3 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 17.9 17.6 14.2 1.4 66.4 62.7 14.6 16.1 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 17.7 17.7 16.5 1.8 70.7 66.3 14.2 15.7 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 9.9 10.1 14.8 2.1 72.5 67.8 6.3 7.9 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 18.8 19.2 16.1 2.1 73.2 68.1 15.1 16.8 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 18.2 18.5 15.4 2.2 73.2 68.3 14.6 16.2 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 18.8 18.9 15.3 1.9 71.1 66.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 18.5 18.4 15.1 1.7 69.7 65.7 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 19.2 18.7 14.6 1.4 65.8 62.8 15.4 17.1 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 18.8 19.5 16.7 2.6 76.0 70.5 14.7 16.6 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 16.8 16.7 14.7 1.4 68.4 63.8 13.8 15.2 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 19.6 19.4 14.9 1.6 68.2 64.4 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 17.2 17.5 16.6 2.1 73.6 68.5 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 17.3 17.8 15.3 2.4 74.1 69.1 13.7 15.3 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 18.0 18.4 17.1 2.2 74.2 68.9 14.2 15.9 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 15.4 15.8 13.5 2.3 74.0 69.3 11.5 13.2 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 18.5 18.8 16.5 2.0 72.7 67.6 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 18.1 18.6 17.0 2.4 76.4 70.8 14.3 16.0 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 18.3 18.8 17.3 2.4 75.7 70.1 14.4 16.1 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 18.8 19.4 16.5 2.4 74.7 69.4 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 17.5 17.6 15.3 1.9 71.8 66.8 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 18.4 18.0 14.4 1.2 64.7 62.1 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 18.2 18.2 16.0 1.8 71.1 66.3 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 17.3 17.2 14.9 1.5 69.0 64.5 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 14.5 15.0 14.6 2.4 74.0 69.3 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 17.8 17.9 16.8 1.9 71.8 67.0 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------