***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.3 6.2 8.0 0.5 56.7 56.0 4.4 5.7 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 7.2 6.6 8.1 0.9 61.8 60.0 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.2 8.2 7.8 0.6 58.1 57.2 6.4 7.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 3.3 3.1 5.3 0.3 54.3 54.1 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.7 5.5 5.6 0.4 56.0 55.6 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.7 4.1 0.3 54.3 54.8 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 7.0 6.4 8.1 0.9 61.5 59.7 4.3 5.6 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -0.8 1.0 4.4 0.3 54.4 54.7 -0.6 0.7 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.6 6.3 0.5 57.1 56.5 4.8 6.1 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.4 6.0 4.9 0.3 54.8 55.0 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.6 5.2 0.3 54.9 55.0 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.6 4.9 0.1 52.1 52.9 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.1 4.5 0.2 52.4 53.2 3.8 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 7.4 6.9 6.6 0.8 62.4 60.5 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.3 5.6 0.2 52.5 52.7 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.3 4.8 0.2 53.2 53.7 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.8 8.2 1.2 65.9 63.0 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.1 5.0 4.5 0.4 55.2 55.3 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 7.0 6.5 8.1 0.9 61.8 60.1 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.3 2.3 3.5 0.5 58.1 57.6 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.1 6.1 7.2 0.5 56.7 56.2 4.3 5.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.3 8.3 1.3 68.2 64.6 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 6.9 6.3 7.7 0.8 61.8 60.2 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.8 6.2 0.6 58.3 57.5 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.5 6.3 0.4 56.3 55.6 4.8 6.1 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.5 4.9 0.2 52.8 53.2 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.8 7.2 0.5 57.3 56.3 4.8 6.2 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.4 5.5 0.2 53.3 53.5 3.0 4.2 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.3 4.2 0.5 57.6 57.3 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 7.4 6.6 8.1 0.7 59.6 58.3 4.4 5.8 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------