***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 17.5 17.3 17.8 1.5 66.3 63.3 14.3 15.8 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 17.3 17.0 17.8 1.3 63.9 61.3 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.1 17.8 18.3 1.5 65.2 62.4 14.8 16.4 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 11.8 11.9 15.4 2.1 72.2 68.3 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 18.5 18.3 16.8 1.8 68.1 65.0 15.0 16.6 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 18.0 18.0 15.8 2.0 70.1 66.1 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 17.4 16.9 17.6 1.3 64.4 61.5 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 10.0 9.8 15.9 1.8 67.7 64.8 6.8 8.2 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 18.8 18.6 17.6 1.8 68.0 65.0 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 18.2 18.1 16.8 2.0 69.1 65.7 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 18.8 18.4 17.2 1.7 66.5 63.8 15.2 16.8 18.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 18.5 18.2 16.5 1.6 66.1 63.6 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 19.1 18.7 16.7 1.5 65.0 62.5 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 18.4 18.3 17.9 1.8 67.3 64.0 14.9 16.6 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.9 17.0 16.7 1.9 70.3 67.1 14.0 15.3 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 19.6 19.3 16.7 1.6 66.7 63.8 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 16.9 16.6 17.5 1.5 65.6 62.5 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 17.4 17.3 16.5 2.0 68.8 65.4 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 17.5 17.1 18.0 1.3 63.8 61.2 14.3 15.8 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 15.3 15.2 14.6 1.8 67.9 64.9 11.9 13.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 18.3 18.2 18.1 1.8 68.3 65.0 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 17.5 17.4 17.7 1.6 66.4 63.2 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 17.7 17.4 18.3 1.4 64.0 61.4 14.6 16.1 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 18.6 18.5 17.8 1.9 67.7 64.3 15.1 16.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 17.4 17.3 16.7 1.7 68.3 64.8 14.2 15.7 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 18.5 18.2 15.7 1.4 65.7 63.3 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 18.0 17.8 17.3 1.5 66.9 63.5 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 17.7 17.8 16.2 2.1 72.0 68.3 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.3 15.9 1.9 67.5 64.6 10.8 12.5 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 17.4 16.9 17.8 1.3 63.4 60.9 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------