***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 6.2 6.8 9.5 1.1 65.2 61.7 4.8 5.9 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 6.2 7.0 9.2 1.2 66.0 62.9 4.6 5.8 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.2 8.7 9.4 1.0 63.5 60.9 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 4.2 4.3 6.9 1.2 68.3 64.9 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 5.5 6.2 7.6 1.1 65.3 62.0 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 4.8 5.6 5.3 1.0 65.8 63.3 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 6.2 6.9 9.3 1.3 66.9 63.4 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 1.2 1.6 5.2 0.7 60.6 58.7 -0.3 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 6.5 7.1 7.5 0.9 63.2 60.4 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 6.1 6.5 5.9 0.7 61.2 59.0 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 5.7 6.1 6.8 0.8 62.3 59.9 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 4.9 5.3 6.1 0.8 61.9 59.5 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 5.4 5.9 5.8 0.8 62.4 60.0 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 6.5 6.9 7.3 0.8 62.2 60.3 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 5.6 6.3 8.0 1.1 68.2 64.8 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 6.5 7.1 6.4 0.9 64.4 61.7 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 6.9 6.9 9.1 1.4 68.3 65.0 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 5.0 5.3 5.4 0.7 60.2 58.6 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 6.2 6.7 9.1 1.0 64.5 61.8 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 2.1 2.4 4.1 0.7 59.4 57.6 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 6.0 6.7 8.7 1.0 64.9 61.7 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 6.3 6.3 9.1 1.2 66.8 63.9 4.1 5.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 5.9 6.4 8.8 0.8 62.5 60.3 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 5.6 6.0 7.1 0.8 61.2 59.4 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 6.6 7.5 8.8 1.3 67.3 63.1 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 5.7 6.1 5.6 0.7 60.8 58.5 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 6.8 7.6 9.3 1.3 66.6 62.4 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 4.6 5.4 7.0 1.1 67.4 64.1 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 4.2 4.4 4.8 0.6 58.7 57.2 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.5 7.1 9.3 1.1 64.7 61.6 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------