***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 14.4 11.8 12.4 -4.9 4.9 7.6 16.4 18.1 19.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 14.8 12.6 12.6 -4.9 5.7 8.5 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 14.7 12.6 12.7 -4.8 6.2 9.3 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 7.5 3.5 8.7 -5.9 2.0 3.8 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 14.8 12.6 11.0 -4.9 6.1 9.4 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 14.7 14.3 11.7 -2.6 21.2 26.1 15.8 17.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 14.3 12.3 12.7 -4.6 6.6 9.6 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 6.2 5.8 11.9 -2.6 22.1 26.3 7.2 9.0 10.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 95 5 0 100 14.8 12.9 12.3 -4.4 7.6 11.5 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 15.0 14.3 12.1 -3.3 16.1 20.5 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 15.0 13.4 11.8 -4.0 10.3 14.5 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 15.0 14.5 12.3 -2.8 19.2 23.5 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 16.2 15.9 13.6 -2.1 25.5 29.5 16.7 18.5 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 15.7 14.5 13.0 -3.6 13.4 18.6 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 14.3 10.2 10.6 -5.8 1.1 2.6 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 15.7 14.6 12.0 -3.7 13.1 17.0 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 14.2 11.9 12.2 -4.9 5.6 8.5 16.1 17.8 19.3 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 15.1 14.8 12.3 -2.6 22.8 27.4 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 14.6 12.4 12.7 -4.8 6.0 9.0 16.6 18.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.3 13.1 11.8 -1.3 35.8 39.0 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 97 3 0 100 14.6 12.3 12.3 -4.9 5.7 8.9 16.6 18.2 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 14.8 12.4 12.3 -4.8 5.5 8.6 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 15.0 13.2 12.9 -4.4 7.6 11.3 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 15.3 14.3 13.0 -3.6 14.7 19.3 16.8 18.6 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 99 1 0 100 14.5 12.0 10.9 -5.2 4.2 6.6 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 15.8 15.9 12.8 -1.9 27.2 30.4 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 14.6 12.5 12.1 -4.7 6.3 9.2 16.5 18.2 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 14.3 10.9 9.9 -5.7 2.6 4.6 16.3 17.8 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.6 11.7 12.5 -1.7 31.3 35.3 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 14.5 12.4 12.7 -4.8 5.8 8.6 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------