***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 3.0 5.6 8.3 59.2 46.4 34.1 3.4 6.3 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 2.5 4.8 6.9 58.1 45.9 32.7 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.9 5.5 8.1 59.7 46.2 33.8 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 2.7 5.4 8.6 57.7 47.3 33.3 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.2 5.8 8.3 59.1 46.8 32.8 3.5 6.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 1.9 4.1 8.6 63.3 47.6 32.1 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.3 4.5 6.9 58.7 46.3 32.7 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.1 8.3 9.1 64.8 47.3 33.6 4.0 9.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.2 5.4 8.5 59.2 46.7 32.7 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.2 5.8 9.1 61.5 46.2 32.7 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.8 5.1 8.1 61.7 46.8 32.4 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.4 6.6 8.4 67.3 49.1 34.1 3.5 6.8 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.0 6.4 9.3 70.7 50.4 35.0 3.1 6.4 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.2 9.5 9.9 62.8 47.6 35.0 5.0 10.5 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.9 3.9 8.9 58.1 48.3 33.4 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.4 5.2 8.2 64.4 48.1 33.0 2.6 5.6 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 1.9 4.7 7.5 68.2 51.5 35.2 2.0 4.5 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.4 7.5 9.7 63.2 46.9 34.3 4.3 8.5 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 2.5 4.9 7.1 58.2 45.6 33.0 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 3.8 7.3 11.5 64.7 47.4 34.9 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.2 5.5 8.3 58.0 46.1 33.3 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.2 5.4 8.0 68.8 51.2 36.7 2.3 5.1 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.1 5.6 7.7 58.5 45.1 33.5 3.3 6.8 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.4 6.3 9.3 62.4 47.7 34.5 3.1 6.9 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.6 5.2 9.0 57.6 46.9 34.2 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.0 5.1 9.1 71.5 52.0 35.4 2.1 4.7 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.5 4.7 8.5 58.0 46.3 34.2 2.6 5.5 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 1.8 3.9 8.3 59.8 48.1 33.2 2.0 4.1 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 5.4 9.4 9.9 61.7 45.8 34.2 5.5 11.2 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.6 4.8 7.1 56.7 44.7 32.5 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------